tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post8478907034919253746..comments2023-10-22T18:25:39.688+08:00Comments on The View from Taiwan: Indefensible Defense Declines =UPDATED=Michael Turtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-67183218281471481542011-06-26T02:52:00.828+08:002011-06-26T02:52:00.828+08:00To anon at 1:07 AM:
For the local state governor ...To anon at 1:07 AM:<br /><br />For the local state governor in the US the employments and economic might be something to talk about, but you think too highly of Taiwanese weapon purchase impact on the US economy. Taiwanese weapon purchase constitutes only 1% of the US weapon exports (far less than most of the other countries). Also, the manufacturers of F-16, General Dynamics and Lockheed Martin, have other major contracts such as F-35s and F-22s, the few F-16 C/D really do not mean much to them.Dixteelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05689510846926854542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-23621537003432145552011-06-25T17:12:24.115+08:002011-06-25T17:12:24.115+08:00I believe it was CCK who abandoned the nuclear pro...I believe it was CCK who abandoned the nuclear program in 1986 amid US pressure and China's assertion that a nuclear Taiwan would be grounds for war.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-34188511168203146482011-06-25T01:12:23.497+08:002011-06-25T01:12:23.497+08:00Taiwan was ready to go nuclear by the early 80s. ...Taiwan was ready to go nuclear by the early 80s. Tsinghua University had been working on it since they relocated their nuke work from mainland China in 1949. Lee Teng Hui scrapped Taiwans' nuclear weapons program under intense USA pressure. Had LTH not kowtowed to the USA's self interest, Taiwan today would be in a completely different bargaining position vis a vis China.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-48234307143397774982011-06-25T01:07:07.377+08:002011-06-25T01:07:07.377+08:00To anon with the obvious question:
Taiwan F-16 pu...To anon with the obvious question:<br /><br />Taiwan F-16 purchases have nothing to do with defense, it is paying tribute to the USA in the form of providing continued employment to soon to be laid off Lockheed Martin employees. The reason for paying protection money is you hope that a less objectionable gangster will protect you from a more objectionable gangster. The USA is currently the strongest and least objectionable gangster in the neighborhood, so Taiawan cannot consider "arms purchases" from any other source.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-92111808114256088912011-06-24T23:18:56.256+08:002011-06-24T23:18:56.256+08:00MK - I really don't know what history book you...MK - I really don't know what history book you're reading:<br /><br />First, The US is not, to my knowledge, prevented from selling weapons to Taiwan. The US does or doesn't based on its own interests.<br /><br />Second, Russia and China have a historically adversarial relationship - thus Russia has certainly not "always been on China's side." Their current relationship is fragile.<br /><br />The ROC has already acquired weapons and planes from the The Netherlands, France, Germany and the US. So my original question stands: why doesn't Taiwan buy planes from these other countries?<br /><br />Sorry, MK, I don't buy the "China pressure" line. Military industries don't really care about hurting the feelings of the Chinese people - they care about profits.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-91805082309626196152011-06-24T21:38:13.158+08:002011-06-24T21:38:13.158+08:00@Anon 8:24: You still have to be able to put up a ...@Anon 8:24: You still have to be able to put up a fight. Throwing your hands in the air and leaving it to others isn't going to cut it.<br /><br />Whether the F16 upgrades etc. are necessary to Taiwan's defense capability or just a) symbolic or b) gravy for the US military supply industry seems to be a question though.Dnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-56503996695684341362011-06-24T20:13:17.976+08:002011-06-24T20:13:17.976+08:00anon,
Of course Taiwan's safety depends a lot...anon,<br /><br />Of course Taiwan's safety depends a lot on the US, but with that kind of attitude no one can help Taiwan. China will overrun Taiwan before the US can even react. Your "path of peace" is actually the path of coercion and war. By giving up, there will be no deterrent and at worst China will decide to invade if it thinks the time is right and the chance of winning is very high. <br /><br />Saying less military spending means less casualty is also illogical. What you are saying is basically that there will be less casualties if Taiwan fights China with bows and arrows. That is ridiculous. Without proper equipment, soldiers become canon folders, and people will have no protection. How could that save lives? Unless, of course, you are talking about surrendering right away. But that is the last option, and should not be what a proper national defense policy strives for.<br /><br />Remember also what happened in 228. Letting China taking over does not mean no casualties and no suffering.<br /><br />Also too many people put too much emphasize on "symbolic" and political meaning of the military sales, and forget that there are actual practical military reasons for the equipment.Dixteelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05689510846926854542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-40028431060412419302011-06-24T15:13:01.202+08:002011-06-24T15:13:01.202+08:00China is like a bad wife, that complains about eve...China is like a bad wife, that complains about everything. as long as she complains, you might as well go drinking.MJ Kleinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16859263977094071677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-75856635175416487552011-06-24T13:28:11.892+08:002011-06-24T13:28:11.892+08:00@ Anonymous with obvious question
If China can pr...@ Anonymous with obvious question<br /><br />If China can pressure the United Flippin' State of America into not selling arms to Taiwan, the chances that those other countries you listed would sell the arms is extremely low. Russia has always been on China's side, not Taiwan's, the EU has been less pro-Taiwan than the USA, Israel is in bed with Russia (my mother has said that there could be a silver lining there - if Russia buys Israel, Lebanon, and Iran there may be more peace in the Middle East), and China can bestow more favours on Saudi Arabia than Taiwan ever could (therefore it's not in their interests to sell weapons to Taiwan). The only country that you mentioned which I could conceive of ever selling arms to Taiwan is India. Which could actually happen, but the USA is a better option.<br /><br />Of course, there are arms manufacturers in those countries which would sell to Taiwan for the right price, but buying from the USA is cheaper than paying the "right price" to those manufacturers.<br /><br />-MKAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-73601751626721540002011-06-24T11:56:22.456+08:002011-06-24T11:56:22.456+08:00Has anyone asked the obvious question?
Why doesn&...Has anyone asked the obvious question?<br /><br />Why doesn't Taiwan buy new planes from France? from Russia? from the UK, Germany, Israel, The Netherlands, India or Saudi Arabia?<br /><br />Why this stupid dance with the US?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-38244939770569924022011-06-24T08:43:37.228+08:002011-06-24T08:43:37.228+08:00Wouldn't any mil sales to Taiwan only be symbo...Wouldn't any mil sales to Taiwan only be symbolic? <br /><br />It would demonstrate the US commitment to the TRA and possibly confound China by sending mixed signals, to which China will predictably respond with severing mil/mil ties or whatever limited choices it has in this case.<br /><br />But, in observing the patterns in these deals, I doubt the KMT is committed to taking up the offer, since I don't observe that it works in this government's favor to be antagonistic, or to take an adversarial posture against the powers across the straits.<br /><br />Does it seem to others here that Taiwan tries not to take an openly antagonistic posture with any foreign power, instead preferring to make inroads in quiet and persistent ways that lead to profitability (of all kinds)?<br /><br />If so, Taiwan may welcome the US saber-rattling support as an indication of Taiwan's influence or value (this surely makes the KMT look good), but may resist any calls to stand alongside them as an active aggressor.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-89605559839552774122011-06-24T08:24:17.666+08:002011-06-24T08:24:17.666+08:00Doesn't really matter whether it's 2%, 3%,...Doesn't really matter whether it's 2%, 3%, or more of GDP. If a full scale war happened, Taiwan would be dependent on help from the US regardless. Thus, reducing Taiwan''d defense spend is in Taiwan's best interests - it sends the international community the sign that Taiwan is dedicated to a path of peace.<br /><br />Should the US decide not to get involved in event of a war, China would likely win in time anyway. It would mostly be a question of how long Taiwan could resist. If the end result is going to be the same, better to reduce the period of fighting and suffering that war will cause - a lower defense budget will help see that happen and ultimately keep more people alive. If the US decided to desert Taiwan, there's not really much Taiwan could do to hold off China in a long running conflict, so increased budget or more weapons aren't really necessary (unless Taiwan really wanted to kick up an arms race and spend 10-20% of GDP and develop nukes). Better to get an early negotiated settlement, avoid fighting and get the best terms possible for Taiwan.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-28899465628662919942011-06-24T07:54:51.373+08:002011-06-24T07:54:51.373+08:00IMO Taiwan could defend itself. It is a question ...IMO Taiwan could defend itself. It is a question of will. With the current defense budget below 3% GDP and retired generals sleeping with China, you cannot defend shit. Taiwan should at least raise its defense budget around 4% GDP and do a clean house in the military and government agencies relating to national securities. Only after that can Taiwan really improve its defense capability.<br /><br />Also Jon, although I don't mind if Taiwan gets a few nukes I don't think nukes are good deterrent because no one believes you will use it. Also, do you think China really cares if you drop a few nukes in China? Not really. Remember, CCP's main objective is always to solidifying its control. Nukes cannot help.Dixteelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05689510846926854542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-62836401383077467312011-06-24T03:51:53.136+08:002011-06-24T03:51:53.136+08:00You have a very reasoned and rational viewpoint on...You have a very reasoned and rational viewpoint on Taiwan defense issues.<br /><br />But as Anon pointed out, even with those, it may be a bit difficult to defend the Isle. Frankly, Taiwan should be sold 3 or 4 nuclear weapons from the USA instead. It's cheaper to maintain and a much stronger deterrent. The US is looking to reduce it's total nuclear arms anyways. Politically incorrect but a win-win.<br /><br />Would have to be covertly brought in though.Jon (台中)noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-78466838657769202012011-06-24T01:55:03.445+08:002011-06-24T01:55:03.445+08:00Clever play by the senator. Question is, who will ...Clever play by the senator. Question is, who will blink first?Rajnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-92153641626892227832011-06-23T22:55:16.066+08:002011-06-23T22:55:16.066+08:00The important question is, could the ROC still def...The important question is, could the ROC still defend the island against the new upgraded Chinese military of 2011 (and on) even if it wanted to? I am skeptic.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com