tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post8026011019030226458..comments2023-10-22T18:25:39.688+08:00Comments on The View from Taiwan: SCMP hosts wonderful thinking on TaiwanMichael Turtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-91892056924679033692010-07-10T12:28:33.672+08:002010-07-10T12:28:33.672+08:00what else other than "mainland"?
even i...what else other than "mainland"?<br /><br />even if the guy in HK subscribe to your political view of "separate country". china will include HK and Macau.<br /><br />a term is just a term, no need to insist everything has a political subtext.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-24632375520449603822010-07-07T09:54:33.522+08:002010-07-07T09:54:33.522+08:00Sage said...I enjoyed Fahey's insightful artic...Sage said...I enjoyed Fahey's insightful article.<br /> But ... is it possible for people to NOT to refer to China as the "mainland"?<br /><br />I always refer to that territory as the PRC<br /><br />@Michael Turton<br />Reading your stuff for a long time. Great and Thanks.Nuttyaznhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03241005468276618731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-74234264354301110912010-07-03T16:34:31.447+08:002010-07-03T16:34:31.447+08:00Is there some kind of virtual Zoloft I can prescri...<b>Is there some kind of virtual Zoloft I can prescribe to you over the internet? Sounds like you need a nice long bike ride....</b><br /><br />Ha. Dead on. I'm trapped here at home during a succession of lovely days, unable to ride because of tendonitis. [sound of wailing and gnashing of teeth]. Can't even drink away the pain because I got no way to burn off the calories with a 120 km ride the next day! I think you might be right. But then I am emotional and dour and pessimistic by nature; it is why I like Fahey's sunny point of view and optimism so much. Not to mention that he sees deeply into Taiwan.<br /><br />I liked the Romberg article as far as it went, not much to quibble with, a sturdy establishment presentation. That's why I linked to it without comment. <br /><br />Also, I think I am suffering from ECFA fatigue. Really, I am just sick of the whole damn thing. <br /><br />Finally I saved your long comment the other day for a blog post. Don't think you are being neglected.<br /><br />MichaelMichael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-56408739351830501122010-07-03T16:17:37.919+08:002010-07-03T16:17:37.919+08:00@Anon: I hate it when MT devolves into name-callin...@Anon: I hate it when MT devolves into name-calling, but what you're saying is really ridiculous. "...a (future) generation of Taiwanese who will grow up watching Chinese movies, listening to Chinese songs, working for Chinese companies, and attending Chinese universities"? And that's not a "myopic view of future events"?? The whole point is that in the long run (I agree with you here, except that "election cycles", or power transitions, do matter in China, as they do in every country; I wonder where you're from, Antarctica?) the terms "Taiwanese" and "Chinese" will shift, as will the nature of "East Asia", and we should be thinking about how to guide that shift. You're using 2010 goggles to imagine 2050.<br /><br />Or maybe you're just trying to be antagonistic?<br /><br />@MT: You say "I just don't think he [Ma] gives a shit about the nation or its opinions, except insofar as they may prevent him from winning again. Once he is in office again in 2012, the legislatures can be bribed/bought off, and party elites doing business with China arent going to want the gravy train to grind to a halt."<br />Is there some kind of virtual Zoloft I can prescribe to you over the internet? Sounds like you need a nice long bike ride....<br /><br />I was just getting ready to ask for your take on the Alan Romberg article you posted in your most recent post, but now I wonder if your objection will simply be that his worldview isn't sufficiently dark and sinister.Dnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-45114859272328779692010-07-03T14:06:13.563+08:002010-07-03T14:06:13.563+08:00And according to this SCMP piece, those intentions...<b>And according to this SCMP piece, those intentions are in vain. So doesn't that vitiate all the hand-wringing (not necessarily by you, but by others in this orbit) about ECFA being the doomsday kiss of death for Taiwan's democracy?</b><br /><br />I don't necessarily agree with Fahey's POV because I don't think political weakness will be a problem in term 2 for Ma; I just don't think he gives a shit about the nation or its opinions, except insofar as they may prevent him from winning again. Once he is in office again in 2012, the legislatures can be bribed/bought off, and party elites doing business with China arent going to want the gravy train to grind to a halt.<br /><br />If Fahey is right about Ma's political weaknesses having a meaningful impact on term 2, then maybe we can escape the fate China has planned. It is hard to gauge the size of the backlash against Ma, though, because the Taiwanese are so silent. 2012 is sure going to be interesting.<br /><br />MichaelMichael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-70045820461437358042010-07-03T12:48:50.918+08:002010-07-03T12:48:50.918+08:00The more you're obsessed with resolving today&...<b>The more you're obsessed with resolving today's problems, the more likely we'll be eating your lunch well into tomorrow.</b><br /><br />Here's how the piece is subtitled:<br /><br />"Beijing is wrong to think that its trade pact with Taiwan will help its long-term political aims"<br /><br />You mean you didn't read the title? Or couldn't?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-49804746400087769772010-07-03T06:47:05.678+08:002010-07-03T06:47:05.678+08:00I love how you glibly ignore the fact that Fahey&#...<b>I love how you glibly ignore the fact that Fahey's article states critics, including yourself, are wrong for emphasizing the KMT is likely to be "duped" by the Communists. You don't really care about the logic, all you value is that he shares your conclusion: Taiwanese sovereignty won't be compromised.</b><br /><br />I love the fact that at no time have I ever said the KMT was duped by the CCP. Ever. Stupid question: why don't anonymous loons learn to read?<br /><br />Not a stupid question. Why can't trolls think? Then they could elevate themselves out of trolldom and into a world where they could say something meaningful.<br /><br /><b>Frankly, I can only hope that Americans persist with their myopic view of future events. The more you're obsessed with resolving today's problems, the more likely we'll be eating your lunch well into tomorrow.</b><br /><br />Actually, Fahey and I discussed this piece in his kitchen yesterday morning. And one of his points was the long time frame of events that lay behind and beyond his analysis.<br /><br />You've...totally misunderstood. Hardly a shock, considering that you're a submissive pro-China loser.<br /><br />Yes, pro-China trolls: loony and clueless. It's why I let you guys post here.<br /><br />MichaelMichael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-14258293461810520882010-07-03T00:38:19.741+08:002010-07-03T00:38:19.741+08:00I love how you glibly ignore the fact that Fahey&#...I love how you glibly ignore the fact that Fahey's article states critics, including yourself, are wrong for emphasizing the KMT is likely to be "duped" by the Communists. You don't really care about the logic, all you value is that he shares your conclusion: Taiwanese sovereignty won't be compromised.<br /><br />He, of course, is writing from the perspective of a typical American time-frame: "strategic" decisions are made on the basis of 4 year campaign cycles. If Ma doesn't have the ability to force some sort of political union during his term(s) in office, then obviously that's the end of the story.<br /><br />That's an idiotic time frame for understanding this story. Beijing has no reason, no motivation for forcing any sort of political union for at least 50 years. The timeline for Hong Kong's reunification was 99 years, and political reform was 50 years. Taiwan's time frame will be at *least* 50 years.<br /><br />The question of who will be in office in 2013 is a minor one. The important issue is: what will mainland China and Taiwan look like in 2060? It seems incredibly unlikely that any politician will jar Taiwan from the obvious orbit it's currently on: the Japanese-speaking octogenarians in Taiwan will die off, replaced by a (future) generation of Taiwanese who will grow up watching Chinese movies, listening to Chinese songs, working for Chinese companies, and attending Chinese universities.<br /><br />Frankly, I can only hope that Americans persist with their myopic view of future events. The more you're obsessed with resolving today's problems, the more likely we'll be eating your lunch well into tomorrow.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-58445505175797465532010-07-02T15:01:29.649+08:002010-07-02T15:01:29.649+08:00"Merely that its political intention was obvi..."Merely that its political intention was obvious and clearly indicated by China."<br />And according to this SCMP piece, those intentions are in vain. So doesn't that vitiate all the hand-wringing (not necessarily by you, but by others in this orbit) about ECFA being the doomsday kiss of death for Taiwan's democracy?<br />Interesting to wonder whether ECFA represents a "moribund business model". <br />Thanks for posting this great article.Dnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-79126259425970825112010-07-02T14:39:47.954+08:002010-07-02T14:39:47.954+08:00Interesting take on ECFA. Haven't seen many po...Interesting take on ECFA. Haven't seen many positive takes on it from the standpoint of the "green" side. <br /><br />To add to your comment about the cultural difference... while I have not experienced it myself (having never been to China), but I have a few Taiwanese friends who are politically probably light greens light blues (center) who've told me about their time in China (studying abroad there or working there for a short period) who have basically said that they have a hard time "getting along" with the Chinese there. While I always viewed Taiwanese and Chinese as different, it was interesting to see that it's not simply a "pan-green" thing to say that Taiwanese and Chinese are different in more ways than one.Richardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13864496921909619980noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-41402337701362103482010-07-02T11:43:56.438+08:002010-07-02T11:43:56.438+08:00Although the analysis has good points, I still fea...Although the analysis has good points, I still fear the economic policies will influence political decision to some extend...and at worst China could actually succeed to some extend. Here is why (the worst scenario):<br /><br />1. China is an example in which economic enrichment does not help in changing political position. However, Hong Kong is a perfect example in which economic influence political decision. The returning of Hong Kong to China in 1997 is based largely on economic, not just political elements. While people in Hong Kong have different culture than people in China, the annexation was unavoidable. People were forced to except it, gladly or not, or immigrate to other places. This could happen to Taiwan if Taiwanese economy becomes very dependent on China.<br /><br />2. While some Chinese living standards are getting better, large portion of China's economic wealth is currently controlled by very few groups of people and many with very good tie with CCP. With CCP controlling both guns and butter, it has absolute rule. That is why the political situation won't change. Currently Taiwan's situation is a bit different, obviously, but what if China can help in turning Taiwan into something like China economically. IE, put wealth in the hands of pro-KMT and pro-CCP people and eliminate the middle class. Then, with control once again firmly in KMT's hand, annexation is not that far fetched. Even if in name there is no annexation, practically CCP will have very good control over Taiwan.<br /><br />3. At this point, many would realize Taiwan has lost its sovereignty, but it would be too late. Any protests or even armed revolution would be for nothing. We can look at Tibet and Hong Kong as examples. Furthermore, many Taiwanese at least point would probably accept the outcome even though unwillingly. Those that want and can afford to do so will probably immigrate out.<br /><br />Of course this is the worst case scenario and I can be very pessimistic at times. Just some thoughts.Dixteelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05689510846926854542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-44219889045786253732010-07-02T11:43:56.439+08:002010-07-02T11:43:56.439+08:00I enjoyed Fahey's insightful article.
But .....I enjoyed Fahey's insightful article.<br /><br />But ... is it possible for people to NOT to refer to China as the "mainland"?Sagenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-14748150132543023812010-07-02T10:00:00.144+08:002010-07-02T10:00:00.144+08:00ECFA is simply the candy.
China is the stranger i...ECFA is simply the candy. <br />China is the stranger in the van.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-68120253373132519852010-07-02T09:52:52.277+08:002010-07-02T09:52:52.277+08:00I assume the repeated use of "mainland" ...I assume the repeated use of "mainland" is the work of the SCMP's editors. It makes it somewhat annoying to read an otherwise excellent piece of writing.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13061413827755873948noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-20762789380002067712010-07-02T09:50:56.280+08:002010-07-02T09:50:56.280+08:00Nobody ever said ECFA was a political agreement. M...Nobody ever said ECFA was a political agreement. Merely that its political intention was obvious and clearly indicated by China.Michael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-7565665266394724252010-07-02T08:26:47.274+08:002010-07-02T08:26:47.274+08:00Which is what most commentators, and the KMT to so...Which is what most commentators, and the KMT to some extent, have been saying all the time. ECFA is an economic/trade agreement only, not a political agreement.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com