tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post7070875369175819502..comments2023-10-22T18:25:39.688+08:00Comments on The View from Taiwan: Pollster GeistMichael Turtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-74788764395651822632010-07-23T16:40:45.569+08:002010-07-23T16:40:45.569+08:00Michael- you might be right.
Just realized that A-...Michael- you might be right.<br />Just realized that A-bian actually got 45% back in 1998. Still he was a formidable campaigner and had a solid record in his first term to point to. Still back then Ma was on the up and only managed to beat him by 6 points. <br /><br />Blues definitely outnumber greens in Taipei City. I still think that Su will do very well to win. The issue of a possible presidential run in 2012 might also end up hurting him. <br />Still he has a change, if anyone from the DPP can win in Taipei it is Su Zhenchang.Mnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-74896931614259752962010-07-23T16:02:39.588+08:002010-07-23T16:02:39.588+08:00(m) I don't agree. Hau's vote total in 200...(m) I don't agree. Hau's vote total in 2006 and Chen Shui-bian's in 1998 are separated by only 4,000 votes. If Hau has his normal lackluster showing and Su mobilizes the entire vote, he can win.<br /><br />I'm just glad that it looks like it is going to be a good showing.Michael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-23361813720192236402010-07-23T15:55:02.076+08:002010-07-23T15:55:02.076+08:00Yes that seems to be the conventional wisdom at th...Yes that seems to be the conventional wisdom at the moment. Hao has come in for quite a bit of criticism, but he inherited a difficult legacy from Ma. Su is formidable opponent.<br />Chu is a rising star in the KMT. Tsai has quite high poll numbers as well, but there is a feeling that her heart isn't really in the Xinbei race. Her latest "I love new" campaign is pretty lame.<br /><br />Still, I'm not sure the conventional wisdom is right. If the KMT can effectively mobilize the blue vote in Taipei they should still win. The DPP has never polled over 42% in Taipei City. With the exception of the last 5 years, the DPP has run Taipei Country since 1989.Mnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-82851830934590018882010-07-23T15:29:33.320+08:002010-07-23T15:29:33.320+08:00Everyone I talk to in Taipei, friends, random stra...Everyone I talk to in Taipei, friends, random strangers, whoever.Michael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-91665632499111333722010-07-23T15:23:29.534+08:002010-07-23T15:23:29.534+08:00"The conventional wisdom at the moment is tha..."The conventional wisdom at the moment is that Su will win while Tsai will lose."<br /><br />Whose conventions?Tommyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13552370490869601403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-70309259241912061402010-07-23T12:56:47.272+08:002010-07-23T12:56:47.272+08:00'the Ma Administration said it would never sig...'the Ma Administration said it would never sign ECFA unless it had the support of 60% of the public. It never achieved that.'<br /><br />Just imagine if this little nugget of information had been forced into the international reports around the time of the ECFA signing. <br /><br />We're not naive enough to expect politicians to keep their promises....but we should at least make an effort to remember the ones they make.<br /><br />The one exception, thankfully, appears to be Ma's 633 nonsense.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com