tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post633393833760632870..comments2023-10-22T18:25:39.688+08:00Comments on The View from Taiwan: Election LinksMichael Turtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-3444164790278710172012-01-11T07:38:52.097+08:002012-01-11T07:38:52.097+08:00"It was the first time in its history that KM..."It was the first time in its history that KMT lost political power."<br /><br />Chen's election as president in 2000 was the second time, right? The first time didn't work out so great either.<br /><br />GuyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-27608289308747508042012-01-10T19:41:16.436+08:002012-01-10T19:41:16.436+08:00The TV talk show commentator Hu Chung-hsin said so...The TV talk show commentator Hu Chung-hsin said someone revealed the newest AIT poll to him, "a very tight margin, about 100 thousand votes, between Tsai and Ma". Though he did not mention who is leading, but later in the talk show he repeatedly discuss Tsai's coalition government. Is that a hint? My guess is also Tsai will win a little, but may flip flop by any incident. Tsai go!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-71139149437550205372012-01-10T12:19:34.817+08:002012-01-10T12:19:34.817+08:00Internal polls can still be run, just not publishe...Internal polls can still be run, just not published. Maybe VoA has secret access. (This is just a wild guess.)Hiltonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-50844156834087855102012-01-10T06:35:50.284+08:002012-01-10T06:35:50.284+08:00VOA could do better. Where is it getting its "...VOA could do better. Where is it getting its "latest public opinion polls"? Jan 8 was already a few days into the blackout, and polls have been surprisingly consistent for a while.Tommyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13552370490869601403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-78667248685039388472012-01-10T05:17:49.300+08:002012-01-10T05:17:49.300+08:00"Tsai says she wants a coalition government. ..."<i>Tsai says she wants a coalition government. Hint: we tried that in the first Chen Administration. Didn't work.</i>"<br /><br />------<br />Though I am as skeptical as you are regarding whether a coalition government will work in Taiwan, I don't see Chen's first cabinet lead by a KMTer as a coalition.<br /><br />Strictly speaking, a coalition is formed between parties for the purpose of securing a parliamentary majority.<br /><br />Chen had a cabinet including members of all parties (DPP, KMT, PFP and Chinese New Party) but it was not the result of a political negotiation between parties. Chen recruited the individuals one-on-one. There was no coalition majority in the parliament that was critical to political stability. That was the reason why that well-intended "all-inclusive" cabinet failed.<br /><br />At the time, KMT was too angry to even sit down with Chen for a coalition talk (e.g. as angry as immediately driving Lee Teng-hui out of his chair position). It was the first time in its history that KMT lost political power. They didn't know how to face it other than being contemptuous. Chen had a very different political context to work with then. Tsai _might_ get luckier than he was. <br /><br />Tsai, if elected, needs to focus on securing parliamentary majority. She likely means to achieve it via a coalition. (There is no hope for DPP to win a parliamentary majority this year.)SYnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-57490270267182719352012-01-10T00:26:47.599+08:002012-01-10T00:26:47.599+08:00Thanks for all the election updates. Being on the ...Thanks for all the election updates. Being on the other side of the lake, it's nice to be able to draw from so many sources all at one website.Stevehttp://pacificrimshots.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-81003986445056164972012-01-09T23:55:25.737+08:002012-01-09T23:55:25.737+08:00Zoher Abdoolcarim for President of Taiwan!Zoher Abdoolcarim for President of Taiwan!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com