tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post5587212667611463817..comments2023-10-22T18:25:39.688+08:00Comments on The View from Taiwan: Hsieh: Seriousness in the poll laughterMichael Turtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-16753544762227349852007-05-11T09:45:00.000+08:002007-05-11T09:45:00.000+08:00One thing I learned in college while working for C...One thing I learned in college while working for Clinton 96 election campaign... you can get any desired poll outcome but controlled the sample of population. GOP groups were running wild with all kinds of polls showing Dole in the lead of very close but the outcome was not that close. What the GOP operatives were doing was skewing the sampling towards certain groups, like retired military, ex-burban households, rednecks, etc. while under sampling Blacks, urban whites, and students.<BR/><BR/>Just looking at the various Blue polls, you can tell right away that they never disclose their sampling method. Most of the time, they don't even give sample size.irwinchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09175879445715413526noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-65810713381868944402007-05-09T11:04:00.000+08:002007-05-09T11:04:00.000+08:00Michael, while I sympathize with your landlord's s...<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<BR/>Michael, while I sympathize with your landlord's sense of oppression, I don't completely buy it as a good reason. I wonder if we may be giving ourselves excuses for bad habits.<BR/><BR/>Two things:<BR/><BR/>1. The pro-green supporters have no problem showing up for DPP-organized protests. <BR/>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><BR/><BR/>I think Michael is right on the money with regard to the deeply embedded sense of fear of Chinese authority. Your observation of (1) (that pro-green supporters can be galvanized into holding large-scale protests) does not disprove his point. When there is safety in numbers, when people gather en masse for a common cause, they are able to cast off their immediate fears and restraints.<BR/><BR/><BR/><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<BR/>If they can don green shirts and march down streets, why should they lie for polls?<BR/>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><BR/><BR/>Because directly answering a poll question from an unknown and untrusted pollster is not the same experience as the relative anonymity of hiding within a crowd. <BR/><BR/>The same phenomenon occurs in the US, where political correctness reigns. A popular ethnic minority running for office will usually poll higher than what the actual election results indicate, because the man on the street wants to appear chic, cosmopolitan, and colorblind to a stranger.<BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<BR/>2. Let us suppose that the history of oppression has permeated so deep into the culture that people are afraid to speak up, like you said. Well, I'd argue THAT is all the more reason to voice your honest opinions during polls.<BR/><BR/>Polls are designed to be anonymous. If the pro-green camp would voice their true opinions, then the REAL political dynamic of Taiwan will be revealed to all. Consequently, the KMT will NOT be able to enjoy an inflated sense of support.<BR/>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><BR/><BR/><BR/>While an important and praiseworthy goal, actually effecting such a change, and getting Taiwanese to answer more openly about their choices and predilections, is a very difficult task---about as difficult as reforming an alcoholic or treating a rape victim.<BR/><BR/>Simply asking someone to shape up or to "get over it" is rarely successful. It requires a great deal of time, a great deal of hard work, and a great deal of discovery for things to change.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-54775124673788756242007-05-09T06:49:00.000+08:002007-05-09T06:49:00.000+08:00zhjSo you're saying Chinese have to resort to figh...zhj<BR/><BR/>So you're saying Chinese have to resort to fighting if they disagree on a matter? That doesn't reflect very well on them does it, given other ethnicities manage democracy without fights.<BR/><BR/>If that is your view, maybe Chinese should address the problems that lead to these situations, rather than sweep them under the carpet by proposing repressive controls.Rajhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10034317459759343093noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-91501773490594161202007-05-09T06:26:00.000+08:002007-05-09T06:26:00.000+08:00"...Habits of silence run deep..."Michael, while I..."...Habits of silence run deep..."<BR/><BR/>Michael, while I sympathize with your landlord's sense of oppression, I don't completely buy it as a good reason. I wonder if we may be giving ourselves excuses for bad habits.<BR/><BR/>Two things:<BR/><BR/>1. The pro-green supporters have no problem showing up for DPP-organized protests. If they can don green shirts and march down streets, why should they lie for polls?<BR/><BR/>2. Let us suppose that the history of oppression has permeated so deep into the culture that people are afraid to speak up, like you said. Well, I'd argue THAT is all the more reason to voice your honest opinions during polls. <BR/><BR/>Polls are designed to be anonymous. If the pro-green camp would voice their true opinions, then the REAL political dynamic of Taiwan will be revealed to all. Consequently, the KMT will NOT be able to enjoy an inflated sense of support. <BR/><BR/>I think it is precisely because pan-blue overestimate their legitimacy that many of them act like f*ckers. <BR/><BR/>In addition, if the poll results reflected Taiwan's political sentiments more accurately, then your run-of-the-mill reporter from the Economist or Reuters can report what's REALLY going on, i.e. which camp has how much support, and what the Taiwanese people really want, etc. <BR/><BR/>Not everyone is an expert like Michael Turton, so the average joe reporter will most likely just say Hsieh is trailing in the polls by a lot and that's all the rest of the world will read.Biomed Timhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02394809303177279262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-70992456020465811912007-05-09T04:56:00.000+08:002007-05-09T04:56:00.000+08:00Hey, where is the confidence interval percentage?Hey, where is the confidence interval percentage?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-84746161052646789602007-05-09T01:25:00.000+08:002007-05-09T01:25:00.000+08:00Sir, there are good and bad things about Taiwan's ...Sir, there are good and bad things about Taiwan's democracy. Beijing can indeed learn many things from various governments, including ROC's.channinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06386334271601532591noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-79994189072244157342007-05-09T00:31:00.000+08:002007-05-09T00:31:00.000+08:00提醒各位以下轉貼的對話在20:06秒開始這裡有貼完整對話文字國民黨立委吳育昇:馬英九選的是「台灣領導...提醒各位以下轉貼的對話在20:06秒開始<BR/>這裡有貼完整對話文字<BR/><BR/>國民黨立委吳育昇:馬英九選的是「台灣領導人」(央視訪談)<BR/>http://www.wretch.cc/blog/betchi&article_id=9030001Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-19914872904174155962007-05-09T00:02:00.000+08:002007-05-09T00:02:00.000+08:00Excellent post!!how does a foreigner knows so much...Excellent post!!<BR/>how does a foreigner knows so much about taiwanese politics! we all should be ashamed of ourselves.Chihwei Tsaohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05614675173418626892noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-31025423402217822262007-05-08T19:58:00.000+08:002007-05-08T19:58:00.000+08:00Chinese Democracy in action: http://www.nu.tv/inde...Chinese Democracy in action: http://www.nu.tv/index.php?guid=1ec1d9345cf67924ce43be9c77d89712&category=<BR/><BR/>Taiwan is setting a bad example for the mainland. No wonder Beijing is rather looking to Singapore for a political model.JZhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10212825239568291402noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-21358334253029113012007-05-08T14:48:00.000+08:002007-05-08T14:48:00.000+08:00Tim:Actually, it is because of a cultural habit of...Tim:<BR/><BR/>Actually, it is because of a cultural habit of silence in the face of the colonialist oppressor. Time and again I've been sitting in groups of Taiwanese where a single KMT supporter is pontificating and a dozen Greens are sitting around the table either smiling politely or simply being silent -- but no one is being challenged. Just the other day I was sitting with my passionately Green landlord and his wife, and the four of us were having a nice political chat when suddenly the wife shot out of her chair and ran to the door to look around. "I hope no one is listening," she said nervously. We were totally alone in her place of business.....<BR/><BR/>Habits of silence run <I>deep</I>. The Green papers run editorials on this problem from time to time. <BR/><BR/>MichaelMichael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-1802777364518757432007-05-08T14:32:00.000+08:002007-05-08T14:32:00.000+08:00"Polls in the pro-KMT papers are notoriously inacc..."Polls in the pro-KMT papers are notoriously inaccurate, as pro-Greens either lie or don't reveal their choices when faced with Blue pollsters..."<BR/><BR/>I've never understood why the pro-Green pursue this as a legitimate strategy. From both a political psychology standpoint and a game theory standpoint, it makes no sense. <BR/><BR/>I think the REAL reason is because many pro-green supporters expect their candidate to lose, and therefore don't want to build up any real expectations. That way when their candidate loses by a smaller margin than original projections, they can still "save face" and tell the KMT how wortheless their polls turned out to be.<BR/><BR/>But this strategy is detrimental to ACTUALLY WINNING the election because you end up the voters that are either "undecided," (they're rare in Taiwan, but they do exist) or the voters on the margin, i.e. those that had little motivation to vote to begin with.Biomed Timhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02394809303177279262noreply@blogger.com