tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post4272426456902307418..comments2023-10-22T18:25:39.688+08:00Comments on The View from Taiwan: Brookings Monster Seminar on Election on Jan 17Michael Turtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-80666297947659753322012-01-09T00:36:16.479+08:002012-01-09T00:36:16.479+08:00Lorenzo look online, Facebook for young people foc...Lorenzo look online, Facebook for young people focused Tsai campaign events. You can look for 小英同學會. Cheers!TEnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-82760461762544882572012-01-08T14:04:00.102+08:002012-01-08T14:04:00.102+08:00Tsai should stop compaigning for one day and watch...Tsai should stop compaigning for one day and watches Iron Lady a hundred times that day. Then she might be able to radiate.Lorenzonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-5280178801998772272012-01-08T09:59:06.530+08:002012-01-08T09:59:06.530+08:00I wonder why Tsai hasn't waved her degree from...I wonder why Tsai hasn't waved her degree from the London School of ECONOMICS around the same way Lien was so keen to showcase his degree in Political Science?<br /><br />Taiwanese like degrees. Taiwanese are nervous about the economy. You'd think they would feel Tsai might be better qualified to help Taiwan's economy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-59629302917742446522012-01-08T01:34:54.763+08:002012-01-08T01:34:54.763+08:00As much as my support for her and with the ehthusi...As much as my support for her and with the ehthusiasm I observed in her road-show rallies, I am not feeling optimistic about Tsai's election at this moment. My prediction for the outcome on Jan. 14 is this: Ma 47%, Tsai 46%, and Soong 7%. This just serves a purpose to reverse-engineer why Tsai might lose. <br /><br />Ma's 47% is consited of core blue (46%) and swing vote (1%). The habbitual voters have voted for Blue since Big Bang. They will still do that this year. <br /><br />Green's core increases from 41% to 43% this year, my estimate. Tsai gets extra 3% from the swing vote.<br /><br />Soong gets 7% from the swing vote.<br /><br />The swing vote is 11% of all votes, consistently through past four presidential elections. It's very difficult to predict whom the swing vote would go to if there is only Ma and Tsai. Now there is Soong and he attracts the swing votes by focusing on domestic economical isssues, such as ADSL fee. This helps Ma more than Tsai because it reduces uncertainty for Ma. (No matter what all polls said. I stand by my own opinion: Soong's participation hurts Tsai greatly. I belive that is exactly his intention. I don't buy those drama played between him and Ma.)<br /><br />Tsai's road-show compaigns in the last week have regressed back to old-style, old-people, and old-slogan convention. They totally lack of the creativity and attraction in the 'three little pigs' movement.<br /><br />This bothers me very very much. In the Taipei mayor election 2008, I watched from a sidewalk Hau's parade, which employed sexy models from a top modeling agency performing role play. I saw many young couples walking with their kids in the parade. It was fun and family-oriented. That bothered me :) Then I went to Su's final-night convention. It just did not click. The whole night was boring and tedious. And mainly traditional supporters showed up there. My heart sank that night. Now I have seen Tsai has repeated the same mistake.<br /><br />I do hope Tsai hire a professional show director to create 'shows' that are attractive to young professionals, young couples with kids,... i.e. the swing voters. Crying out for freedom, justice, and equality can still be done in a fun and family-oriented fashion.Lorenzonoreply@blogger.com