tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post2483763705596960662..comments2023-10-22T18:25:39.688+08:00Comments on The View from Taiwan: More Election Analysis & ResponsesMichael Turtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-74431696158193955272008-01-30T23:06:00.000+08:002008-01-30T23:06:00.000+08:00Yes, economic growth of 5.46% is quite good.Yes, economic growth of 5.46% is quite good.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-50347273058894335452008-01-28T07:42:00.000+08:002008-01-28T07:42:00.000+08:00On the economy, we may be heading for a slight glo...On the economy, we may be heading for a slight global slow-down. If the US heads into recession, American consumers will buy fewer Taiwanese products. This may lower Taiwan's GDP in a way that cross-strait links and infrastructure projects cannot compensate. It would be interesting to see the public's reaction to a declining GDP under a newly elected KMT administration that campaigned largely on the economy. The economy is doing well now. It might not be as great in a year or so. Just food for thought.Tommyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13552370490869601403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-20926491034235066462008-01-28T00:16:00.000+08:002008-01-28T00:16:00.000+08:00It is misleading to say that the DPP agreed with a...It is misleading to say that the DPP agreed with all of the legislative election reforms. They wanted referendum voting to become a part of the electoral process, and they wanted the party vote, so they put up with the redistricting and the small single legislator districts.<BR/><BR/>It turns out, referendums under the current system are dead (goddamn shame--Taiwan really needs to debate, then vote on nuclear power/energy policy, and the Su-Hua Freeway). Everyone pretty much also agrees that the absolute number of legislators is too little and that many more (perhaps doubling) seats should be allocated to the party vote.<BR/><BR/>In any case, the reality of actual election results changes how the theoretical consitutional changes are viewed. No one thought how bad ly the legislature would reflect the proportion of votes. Now everyone knows and is talking abou t it. Hopefully something will be done.<BR/><BR/>One more thing--Michael, I have to say that I think one of the biggest coups of KMT propaganda has been to say how bad the economy has been doing. Even Greens accept this line without much thinking, and justify their support for the DPP on other grounds. I think in Taiwanese society there is a segment of the population that needs help adjusting to the globalized economy. However, I think 90% of the problem with the economy has been perception.<BR/><BR/>Yes, there are a lot of things the gov't can and should be doing better, but on the other hand, Taiwan has always competed and grown well even with these bad rules in place. You can only do so much at one time, and I think a sense of crisis is good, but being pessimistic flying entirely counter to cold hard facts of a healthy, vibrant Taiwanese economy hurts the economy real bad in terms of people's willingness to invest, people's willingness to spend, etc.<BR/><BR/>So, my summary--the KMT won, not because of an appealing (though deceptive) message, but because they also had in accomplice much of the media in Taiwan, which has always been pro-Blue, but found that the economy issue was one in which they could hit at the DPP and still resonate with their viewers (i.e. not be outed as the liars they are). I believe that this past election, the economy issue was huge, even though it's a fake issue.<BR/><BR/>Some food for thought:<BR/>- Since 2001, the rate of jobless has been steadily decreasing<BR/>- Income tax revenue has been increasing (note that rich people make almost all of their money from capital gains which isn't taxed)<BR/><BR/>Let me point out all the retarded statistics on starting salaries of college students never accounts for the fact that 1) there are tons more college students 2) never bothers to ask what people are making 5 years after college instead of just starting salary 3) never includes bonuses and stocks, which in Taiwan is the norm, not the exception, unlike in other countries 4) never thinks about how many people own businesses (Small Medium Enterprise heavy Taiwan, this is around 15% of the country... yes, really, 15%... how are they doing? does anyone bother asking?)<BR/><BR/>Remaining problems:<BR/>- Remaining government owned enterprises really need to be privatized (Taiwan Railway Administration, China Petroleum Company, ...)<BR/>- Tax reform (lowering estate tax, getting rid of the fuel tax, increasing gasoline tax)<BR/>- Higher Education: either privatization of some universities or universities can start setting their own tuitions and upgrading/recruiting students/professors as they see fit<BR/>- Stop subsidizing water, gas, electricityAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-37759890600564790532008-01-27T13:21:00.000+08:002008-01-27T13:21:00.000+08:00...Congratulations on getting published in the Tai....<BR/>.<BR/>.<BR/>Congratulations on getting published in the Taipei Times, Michael! <BR/><BR/>As an additional thought -- I remember talking to some of my "international" co-workers last week about corruption in politics at the local level. Their native countries were Burma, Sri Lanka and China. All of them recognized that local corruption was systemic in each of their former homelands. But they all have this nostalgic sense about living there under those conditions. When I mentioned Taiwan and how I was sad to find out that the Taiwanese had chosen to embrace the past once again, they tried to convince me that this system is just as good as any. At that point I remember my Chinese co-worker trying to explain to me that this particular kind of localized politics is actually an "efficient" and "practical" system.<BR/><BR/>These are well-educated individuals who have lived in the mature democratic and prosperous country of Canada for over 4 years -- and they still feel this way!<BR/><BR/>My pessimism for Taiwan was somewhat heightened that day.<BR/>.<BR/>.<BR/>.skiingkowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05381159852660053893noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-34496940504728753022008-01-27T02:50:00.000+08:002008-01-27T02:50:00.000+08:00...Until corruption, black gold, and the like is l....<BR/>.<BR/>.<BR/>Until corruption, black gold, and the like is looked upon as a disease affecting the long-term interests of Taiwanese citizens -- nothing will change. Unfortunately, this type of mature foresight is lacking in Taiwanese society at the moment.<BR/><BR/>As Michael points out, 2004 was a watershed moment for the possibility of this short-sighted cultural phenomenon to change in Taiwanese politics and society. Sadly, history extinguished that possibility.<BR/><BR/>This cultural shift in priorities is an extremely challenging problem for any party who wants to lift Taiwan out of the dark-ages of politics. This change has to be orchestrated at so many different levels. I personally find it difficult to see how this will ever be done in Taiwan.<BR/>.<BR/>.<BR/>.skiingkowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05381159852660053893noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-84576186802156625172008-01-27T02:24:00.000+08:002008-01-27T02:24:00.000+08:00hey, was just reading a letter in the taipeitimes ...hey, was just reading a letter in the taipeitimes which sounded said exactly what you've been saying over the last couple of weeks...i scrolled down and it was your letter. Apparently they finally accepted it.<BR/><BR/>congratulations!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-1000037204197504602008-01-27T00:22:00.000+08:002008-01-27T00:22:00.000+08:00Michael, I know it must be frustrating to be you (...Michael, I know it must be frustrating to be you (and I'm not being sarcastic). I appreciate all of your analysis and taking the time to lay it out as you have.<BR/><BR/>It certainly keeps me thinking. This is exactly why I write. <BR/><BR/>Thanks,<BR/>RobertRoberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17810211372214301382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-39631058958130562632008-01-26T18:39:00.000+08:002008-01-26T18:39:00.000+08:00Michael, why do you keep saying the KMT gerrymande...Michael, why do you keep saying the KMT gerrymandered the districts when both the CEC and DPP agreed with most of the boundaries in negotiation sessions? The relative few that were decided by ballot were reasonably evenly distributed between the parties in the legislative.<BR/><BR/>You seem to be suggesting that the DPP and CEC agreed to gerrymandering.Rajhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10034317459759343093noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-68528773084895338442008-01-26T17:57:00.000+08:002008-01-26T17:57:00.000+08:00More political commentary from foreigners about Ta...More political commentary from foreigners about Taiwan's recent election. As usual, most of it centers on the prevailing outsider's views about the need for infrastructure reform. Why don't we hear massive yelling from the Taiwanese? Surely, at least some of them read this blog.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-57313826297719521492008-01-26T16:29:00.000+08:002008-01-26T16:29:00.000+08:00Thanks very much for the analysis. Fascinating and...Thanks very much for the analysis. Fascinating and depressingly convincing. A lot has clicked into place reading your election posts. <BR/>But does any of this apply to the presidential elections? Surely the DPP can maintain sustainable competitiveness for the presidency?<BR/>Can they?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com