tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post1845966600189371874..comments2023-10-22T18:25:39.688+08:00Comments on The View from Taiwan: Nelson Report: responses to Xi's comments on IndependenceMichael Turtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-53012417492478884472016-03-10T16:16:44.371+08:002016-03-10T16:16:44.371+08:00I am not sure about that. In HK, I have heard expe...I am not sure about that. In HK, I have heard experts such as Wally Lam say that they do not think Xi ever intends to step down. Personally, I do raise an eyebrow at the degree of concentration of power in the hands of Xi Jinping, combined with the anti-corruption campaign, which has brought down fairly few of his allies. To me, this indicates that he is a leader who intends to give himself the strongest platform to affect the country in the long run. This said, from everything I have read, there are some murmurings about his actions, and, at some point, that will bite him somewhere he does not want it to without a much more draconian form of control. Is China ready for another Mao Zedong (not referring to Cultural Revolution and the like but to a perpetual strongman)? I do not think so.<br /><br />That said, I can see him pulling a Putin -- stepping down while leaving a weak and pliable leader in his wake. In this way, China would get more of Xi without Xi as General Secretary. Then again, Xi might be more vulnerable than we think. Most of what happens among the Party people stays among the Party people. <br /><br /> Tommyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13552370490869601403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-13276713669843986922016-03-10T12:25:55.874+08:002016-03-10T12:25:55.874+08:00Those are excellent points. What do you think of t...Those are excellent points. What do you think of this personality cult being fostered around Xi? Do you think he'll actually step down when it is time?Michael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-22158376584561639322016-03-09T20:36:04.473+08:002016-03-09T20:36:04.473+08:00I do think it is important to remember that Xi did...I do think it is important to remember that Xi did not say that the consensus has to be the basis for ties. He said that China would adhere to it, and both sides must "accept the historic facts" about it. This is not equivalent to mutual recognition of the consensus. This is reassuring because it shows that leaders understand that the consensus is dead in the water as a basis for ties. This said, I have full confidence that Xi truly does want unification ASAP. On the bright side, economic troubles may serve as a distraction by giving him bigger troubles than Taiwan to worry about over the next two years. Xi could attempt to deflect attention from this by doing something big in Taiwan policy, but it may not come to that. And, I can imagine that there is probably a significant minority of officials that would really rather keep relations with the US on an even keel at the moment.<br /><br />I think that the overall backdrop is important. While I was in Guangdong over the weekend, I read the official media summaries of Li's work report in the Guangzhou Daily. I might be wrong, but I got the impression that there is definite concern on the economic front as it pertains to reputation. The GZ Daily emphasized economic growth one too many times. There was even a statement that said, "1 percent of growth now is like 2.5 percent 10 years ago!" Taiwan is important, but all may not be well behind the curtain. Tommyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13552370490869601403noreply@blogger.com