tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post116559056721789342..comments2023-10-22T18:25:39.688+08:00Comments on The View from Taiwan: ESWN on Local Media PollsMichael Turtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-1165637002855660272006-12-09T12:03:00.000+08:002006-12-09T12:03:00.000+08:00If Hsieh comes within 10 points, or even loses by ...If Hsieh comes within 10 points, or even loses by 10 points, doesn't that bode well for him in 2008. The way I see it, unless he loses in a catastrophic way, it is a win-win situation for him. If by some twist of fate he wins, then well, he wins. If he loses by 5-10 points, then he has resuscitated his image, and shown that a significant portion of Taipei's population believes his competence as Kaohsiung mayor overrides any corruption charges, which were never proven. So, if he comes within 10 points or even wins, then it would also do much to dispel the myth that Taipei is an "essentially" blue place. If Hsieh does do well, it would probably also be a boost for James Soong, since it would mean that he won enough of the vote to split the blue camp, though I suppose there would also be a lot of people angry at him. But it would also mean that his base of support is still strong. I know a lot of this is speculation, but really, that's all we have at this point--hypotheticals--and an imperfect media. <BR/><BR/>Lastly, I don't really think Hsieh has run a bad campaign. To say that Hau Lung-bin has run a good one--as some have argued--is to miss the point that it was always his to lose in the first place. Hsieh was recruited because nobody else wanted to run for the DPP. <BR/><BR/>Sorry, one more point: I know a lot of people are attacking Hsieh because he is promising the Olympics. It is always good to give people a dream to reach for. Indeed, that is what China did all the way back to the early nineties. At the time, it wasn't at all obvious that they would win the bid, and they didn't in 2000, but when they lost in 2000, they kept trying, and when they won the 2008 bid, people celebrated all over the country. I was on the top of Wudang Mountain at the time. <BR/><BR/>The way I read Hsieh's Olympics ad, he is saying that if Taipei has any possibility of hosting the Olympics, it will be necessary to completely revamp the city--to create, in effect, a dream city, which is the real goal. Often with such teleological campaigns, the goal, in the end, isn't the most important part; it is the goal that motivates people to think big and creatively. I think this is better than all of the campaigns that are really saying nothing. <BR/><BR/>By the way, I will be at Hsieh's headquarters later today.Elihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03648566751513055517noreply@blogger.com