tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post115873274496206299..comments2023-10-22T18:25:39.688+08:00Comments on The View from Taiwan: China threat: OverblownMichael Turtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-1158808823549098172006-09-21T11:20:00.000+08:002006-09-21T11:20:00.000+08:00People always think about the size difference, but...People always think about the size difference, but defense is also really easy compared to offense. Since 1900, there has not been one single successful invasion--unless you count Afghanistan (doesn't really count since there was a civil war going on) and Iraq. In other words, the exceptions are very questionable themselves.<BR/><BR/>Taiwan with a small but credible amount of offensive capability (like 2 nuclear bombs or the conventional arms equivalent) would effective neutralize any threat whatsoever of China invading Taiwan.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-1158767797466633912006-09-20T23:56:00.000+08:002006-09-20T23:56:00.000+08:00I was tempted to quote E Timor. But it wasn't too ...I was tempted to quote E Timor. But it wasn't too much of a success considering the violence/etc.<BR/><BR/>But there is no perfect analogy, I guess. I was just trying to make the point that there are some close analogies, and it is more likely in today's world than in, say a few decades ago.<BR/><BR/>IMO relative size is not the crucial factor, but it puts more responsibility of taking the first concession / goodwill on the larger party (as was shown in Indonesia's case). However, the Aceh case also showed that the smaller (less powerful) party is willing to compromise only when it had not much choice otherwise.<BR/><BR/>The lesson is that some visionary leader on either (or both) side would need to seize a small window of opportunity in a crisis to initiate the reconciliation. CCP made a half-hearted attempt during the earth quake in 1999, but that wasn't enough.Sun Binhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08093210384069958083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-1158744307535045312006-09-20T17:25:00.000+08:002006-09-20T17:25:00.000+08:00killer peace offensive? Easier said than donekiller peace offensive? Easier said than doneAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-1158737020271067052006-09-20T15:23:00.000+08:002006-09-20T15:23:00.000+08:00Hmmm...I don't think the two Yemens or the Turkey-...Hmmm...I don't think the two Yemens or the Turkey-Greece situation applies, as they are close in size and power. Aceh is an interesting example -- maybe E. Timor too. I emailed Plate for some examples, let's see what he says.<BR/><BR/>MichaelMichael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-1158736904118559452006-09-20T15:21:00.000+08:002006-09-20T15:21:00.000+08:00how about canada sunshining america? :) it could h...how about canada sunshining america? :) it could have become become a texas if dubya insists, you know....just kidding<BR/><BR/>example of success for amicable approach<BR/>1) the 2 yemen's?<BR/>2) aceh in indonesia?<BR/>3) greeks showing goodwill when turkey hit by earthquake, thus easing the perenial antagony.<BR/><BR/>you got to believe the good sides of human nature.Sun Binhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08093210384069958083noreply@blogger.com