tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post113274518629543252..comments2023-10-22T18:25:39.688+08:00Comments on The View from Taiwan: China, Taiwan Economic Integration, Peace, and WarMichael Turtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-1133238322411901382005-11-29T12:25:00.000+08:002005-11-29T12:25:00.000+08:00Sun Bin,I was thinking more of the economic packag...Sun Bin,<BR/><BR/>I was thinking more of the economic package that was developed about a year after CSB became president: which was probably the biggest policy decision of CSBs first term (certainly the biggest re:China economically). Although there was pressure to change the rules on Chinese investment then, it was a pretty bold and unforced move.<BR/><BR/>I believe they are planning another large economic policy review soon - we shall see what comes out of it.<BR/><BR/>The fruit export thing is, I agree, stupid - however I think it is far more politically significant than economically significant. The reason the DPP oppose it is because it is closely tied to the KMT - If it was instigated by the KMT, it *must* be a bad thing and resisted at all costs. It's the same as any issue in Taiwan: once it becomes politicized, the original reason and logic goes out the window.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-1133230883106873782005-11-29T10:21:00.000+08:002005-11-29T10:21:00.000+08:00other minor pointsTake Germany and Austria. Irelan...other minor points<BR/><BR/><I>Take Germany and Austria. Ireland and the UK. The US and Canada. The US and UK. Australia and New Zealand. Ukraine and Russia. Taiwan and Japan. All these represent nations with shared cultures and languages, close trading relationships, colonial histories, and so on. Some of them are far more economically interdependent than China and Taiwan.</I><BR/><BR/>1. no, none of them is as close in language and culture as china and taiwan, except, maybe austria and germany. irish speak a different language, american is much more racially diverse than british, canadian includes the french speaking quebec, ukraine has its own history and language, plus different religion; taiwan/japan is like taiwan/korea or say, england and franch.<BR/><BR/>2. none of yhour example is more economically interdependent than mainland china and taiwan (including your austria/germany example), as indicated by wayne's FDI figures<BR/><BR/>----<BR/><I>... one side opted for independence from the motherland despite close economic interdependence...</I><BR/><BR/>yes, there is a choice. but it is a lot more difficult and divided within the area in question, precisely because of the economic and cultural interaction (if not for economic reason, quebec might have been independent already).<BR/><BR/>Quebec is the best example that 'relationship and ties',and economic interests could trump desire for power.<BR/><BR/>about tibet, you really cannot speak for the tibetans who live there now, not until there is a poll. dalai and his clan's interests is not neccessarily the same as that of the tibetans.Sun Binhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08093210384069958083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-1133204390205624462005-11-29T02:59:00.000+08:002005-11-29T02:59:00.000+08:00I'm in 100% agreement with your main point that th...I'm in 100% agreement with your main point that the overriding impetus behind any future unification between Taiwan and the mainland will be the violent imposition of force or the threat thereof, as opposed to (say) the number of pirated Jay Chou CDs there are on the mainland, I disagree with some of your other minor points.<BR/><BR/>1.) <I>that economic integration may exacerbate political conflict by spotlighting dependency relationships, or by creating new areas of conflict.</I> <BR/><BR/>Excuse me? Perhaps this is commonly accepted wisdom in poli sci departments, but that won't fly very far in econ/IPE departments. Do you have an example from the post-colonial era?<BR/><BR/>2.) Quoting direct trade stats between Taiwan and the mainland is highly misleading when the archtypical economic relationship is a Taiwanese company building factories in the mainland to export cheap electronics to developed countries. FDI stats would be a much more accurate indicator. A lazy Google search turns up something like 80% of Taiwan's FDI goes to China. http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2005/04/06/2003249361Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-1133203921075311292005-11-29T02:52:00.000+08:002005-11-29T02:52:00.000+08:00david and michael,i understand that there is some ...david and michael,<BR/><BR/>i understand that there is some rationale in some of the measures, as both of you stated. however, if you look at the 'liberalization', in almost all cases DPP was pressured into doing it or it has no other choice (e.g. the labor internsive factories would be closed in Taiwan whether you let them move to China or not.)<BR/><BR/>i guess what DPP (also KMT) needs to do is to evaluate the plus and minus of each measure, and proceed on those that nets a plus for the island. this is not easy to quantify, but some of the cases are very simple and straightforward.<BR/><BR/>in that sense, i still believe many of DPP's reaction do not make sense, e.g. the fruit export problem. this just shows that DPP is still not sure about whether it should act as a 'pressure group' or a 'ruling party'.Sun Binhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08093210384069958083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-1133172352521198902005-11-28T18:05:00.000+08:002005-11-28T18:05:00.000+08:00then my question is,why is CSB and LTH so afraid o...<EM>then my question is,<BR/>why is CSB and LTH so afraid of such integration? why did they try everything they could to curb more interaction</EM><BR/><BR/>Sun Bin, I think you're looking at it from the wrong angle: the DPP government has greatly liberalised cross-strait economic policy - of course, not as much as many businessmen would hope, or as much as the KMT would like, but liberalised none the less. (In fact, from an economic viewpoint they are the most pro-China government in the history of the ROC-on-Taiwan by some distance!)<BR/><BR/>So you should be asking "Why is the DPP not moving to embrace China faster?" - to which there are plenty of possible answers: fear of a military enemy, fear of unemployment in Taiwan (too many jobs moving to China too fast), fear of overdependence on one overheated economy, dificulty in interacting with a government that doesn't acknowledge your existence, because that's what differentiates them from the KMT ...<BR/><BR/><BR/>As for LTH: Well, nowadays I consider him a spokesperson for a pressure-group. Since that pressure-group is not particularly concerned with economics, his opinion is pretty irrelevant :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-1133101728526595202005-11-27T22:28:00.000+08:002005-11-27T22:28:00.000+08:00Michael, Again you don't really seem to catch on...Michael,<BR/><BR/> Again you don't really seem to catch on to what I'm saying. I didn't propose that the provinces of the PRC should become "like Taiwan," I asserted that their relationship with Beijing should become more like that of Taiwan than it currently is. No, I don't imagine that they will ever become independent, but there are many shades of autonomy between that and the current state of near-total (in formal terms, at least) centralization that is the structuring principle of the PRC. Someday it would be to everyone's benefit if the provinces could choose their own local leaders and have the same kind of autonomous institutions, rights and powers controlled by the individual states of the U.S.<BR/><BR/>Your description of the Taiwanese as a "veneer" in China is interesting but tendentious. The Taiwanese will always have a linguistic and cultural advantage over other contingencies doing business in China, and as to when they will "depart," I'm interested to know when exactly you think that is going to happen. However strong a presence the U.S. has in China, Sino-U.S. relations will never have the same kind of volatile potential that cross-Strait relations do in PRC domestic politics- engagement with Taiwan is not a matter of choice for Beijing. <BR/><BR/>Moreover, my contention was never that Taiwanese are "trying" to democratize China. I only maintain that if things work out for the best and China does liberalize politically: a)Taiwan will provide China with a natural model; b)Taiwanese politicians are likely to play some sort of role; c)the process of democratization is likely to draw Taiwan and China closer, just as China's economic liberalization has done.Madman of Chuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-1133097249625165192005-11-27T21:14:00.000+08:002005-11-27T21:14:00.000+08:00MoC:When you say that other provinces should becom...MoC:<BR/><BR/>When you say that other provinces should become like Taiwan in some way, are you suggesting that they should become independent? Democratic? Or what?<BR/><BR/>I know your piece was about Chinese politics. That is why throughout my piece I emphasized what a total veneer the Taiwanese are in China. They are a colonial population living in enclaves, present in China only to make $$, after which they will depart. Just like the Americans, the Japanese, and the denizens of other countries. No one is arguing that Japan will Japanify China. In fact the most likely influencer of China is the US, which not only has the power, but also the prestige, and unlike either Taiwan or Japan, has (1) an ideology that it actively promulgates (democracy + human rights) and (2) has businesses that are sometimes near-democratic in their practices. As a researcher pointed out on H-Asia last year, for many Chinese the grievance processes of American multinationals are their first experience of due process. Neither Taiwanese or Japanese firms are going to give them such experiences. <BR/><BR/>Sun, I do not believe economic integration reduces the risk of war. Perhaps I will blog on that in the future.<BR/><BR/><I>then my question is,<BR/>why is CSB and LTH so afraid of such integration? why did they try everything they could to curb more interaction</I><BR/><BR/>Because they, like me, do not believe that Taiwan should be out improving the economy of a nation out to destroy it as a separate political entity. Taiwanese investment enables China to grow, modernize its military, and threaten Taiwan.<BR/><BR/>You're right that their stance does hurt the DPP, though.<BR/><BR/>MichaelMichael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-1133065493842809002005-11-27T12:24:00.000+08:002005-11-27T12:24:00.000+08:00Michael, I don't in essence disagree with anythi...Michael,<BR/><BR/> I don't in essence disagree with anything you have to say here, except for the manner in which you mischaracterize my own argument. My original post was entitled "The Coming (Knock on Wood) Taiwanization of China," NOT "The Coming Sinification of Taiwan." My purpose was to comment on how engagement with Taiwan might alter the political culture of the PRC, not to discuss what influences work in the other direction across the Strait. I would point to one very germane passage in my original post that contradicts many of the implicit claims in your piece:<BR/><BR/>"Many of the political and economic woes of the current [PRC] regime stem from the same systemic forces that impeded and eroded the Chinese Empire- the fact that precious few institutional structures were in place to allow for the free expression of local interests or the reconciliation of conflicts between center and periphery. Though Beijing looks to a future in which Taiwan exists in the same relationship to itself as Hunan or Jiangsu, all China would arguably profit from a situation where those provinces' orientation toward Beijing grew closer to that of Taiwan."<BR/><BR/>Toward the conclusion of my piece I note that Taiwanese resistance to reunification will never likely be wholly overcome. You are surely correct when you say that "the Taiwanese belief that China is willing to commit murder and mayhem on an island-wide scale, coupled with the calculation that they are unwilling to accept such destruction in exchange for their independence, that will cause them to pack up their tents and set out the white flag." My post was never meant to contradict this fact- again my purpose was to comment on the political situation in CHINA, not Taiwan.Madman of Chuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-1133062141492327042005-11-27T11:29:00.000+08:002005-11-27T11:29:00.000+08:00let's assume you are right, that economic integrat...let's assume you are right, that economic integration does not mean political merger. (i believe so, even though i also believe economoc interwining reduces the risk of conflict/war to certain extent)<BR/><BR/>then my question is,<BR/>why is CSB and LTH so afraid of such integration? why did they try everything they could to curb more interaction (even though there is already a lot so that the incremental makes small difference)?<BR/><BR/>i am sincerely asking for an answer, because I really cannot understand. (and i think this hurts DPP itself, e.g. support of businesses such as Formosa Plastic and Evergreen)Sun Binhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08093210384069958083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-1133059207595607742005-11-27T10:40:00.000+08:002005-11-27T10:40:00.000+08:00BRAVO!This ought to be published somewhere. Man, I...BRAVO!<BR/><BR/>This ought to be published somewhere. Man, I wish you were writing for NY Times as their correspondent.<BR/><BR/>Too true, no one thinks Austria and Germany are about to unite with love, so why should Taiwan and China? Rather, people should expect this closeness to cause irritation and an eventual open conflict.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com