Brian Hioe is interviewed over at the Diplomat. In the middle of that perfectly pedestrian interview he dropped this gem:
However, personally, I see the role of New Bloom as more necessary than ever in the present moment. A sign of how desperate Taiwan is for international acknowledgement is that, after the Trump-Tsai [phone call in 2016], there are those in Taiwan who have convinced themselves that the Trump administration genuinely has Taiwan’s best interests in minds, rather than hopes to use Taiwan as a potential card to play against China. There are also those [who believe], despite the obvious instability of the Trump administration, long-standing friends of Taiwan within the administration will keep destabilizing forces in check. This is a dangerous belief, one founded on conflating wishful thinking for what is geopolitical reality at present. As such, pushing for a left path to independence, one not solely reliant on the geopolitical might of America, seems paramount.There is no one among the many people who write on Taiwan affairs, many of whom I know personally and well, who holds the position that Brian describes in the text I've bolded (he actually stated it twice in the interview). That's total nonsense. It's sad and scary that Brian stated that in a public interview. The next sentence:
There are also those [who believe], despite the obvious instability of the Trump administration, long-standing friends of Taiwan within the administration will keep destabilizing forces in check. This is a dangerous belief, one founded on conflating wishful thinking for what is geopolitical reality at present. As such, pushing for a left path to independence, one not solely reliant on the geopolitical might of America, seems paramount.Brian is quite young, and has never watched or participated in policymaking in DC, which some of us have been observing for decades now. The reason we keep telling him to wait and see what will happen is that foreign policy has tremendous inertia and powerful forces (not just "long-standing friends within the administration") contend to prevent it from veering from its current course. Brian does not tell us why this belief is dangerous, nor has he ever presented, concretely, the "left path" to independence without that American geopolitical might (which we do not rely "solely" on, another sad strawman). All of us see the same instability he does, but all of us also have a healthy respect for the inertia of foreign policymaking in the US.
Like Brian, many of us lament the role of Taiwan as a geopolitical pawn and the vast harm/good the US has done to Taiwan over the years, but we are also realistic enough to realize that is the only role available to us at the moment. And that being a pawn has also been good for us: imagine where we'd be if we were irrelevant to the US.
Meanwhile a US official called this week for the US to move closer to Taiwan in response to Chinese expansionism... as I always say, when the US drifts farther from China, it moves closer to Taiwan.
For Brian at his best, see this excellent recent piece on netizen mocking of the name of the new DPP spokesman, an aboriginal. Han racism is a horror show, one that aborigines have to deal with every day, from mocking comments on skin color and names, to the fact that they often cannot wholly own their own land...
Oh, and Brian, one other thing if you read this. The difference between us is not that you're the insightful and fearless Left and I'm a self-deluding, closeted rightist about the US role in the world. It's that I tweet and blog almost everything you write whether I agree with it or not, yet have never received the same courtesy from you -- not even a single tweet of the many articles I have written. To me your "left path to independence" looks a lot like a closed community of people who think just like Brian.
ADDED: nice long comment from Anon below.
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Daily Links:
- Pangolins: these magical mammals are much sought-after by Chinese. WaPo laments their possible passing. Asia Sentinel on conservation of pangolins on Taiwan.
- Excellent piece on Taiwan's forest wars and migrant workers
- Economy suffers first decline in export orders since Feb. USvChina trade war effects? But the trade war may actually force Taiwan businessmen in China out of China.
- How could Lyle Goldstein be so smart about the nature of the Chinese military build up and so stupid about the proper policy response to it? Cole responds to Goldstein in The National Interest
- The more-KMT-than-the-KMT New Party accuses KMT of selling Ma Ying-jeou down the river over the recent round of indictments in the asset funds embezzlement cases. Ma reports to the KMT on the case here.
- US post office says we're Formosa Taiwan
- Taiwan needs to stop trolling Japan over the Senkakus, which the government again says belong to the ROC. That claim is completely false -- certainly there is no need to say it aloud. The Taipei Times also commented trenchantly on the stupidity of trolling allies.
- Activists splash red paint on CKS statue at Dead Dictator Memorial Hall
- Kenting suffers tourism decline
- Project connects Maori with their Taiwan cousins.
- WARNING: RTI reports that "another New Taipei resident has been confirmed as the most recent case of indigenous dengue fever. The CDC reminds people to remove standing water from around their homes to reduce the number of mosquito breeding grounds. Those who fail to do so could be fined 3000 to 15,000 NT."
- Taiwan: the land colonialisms made, special issue, now out.
- Kelvin Chen: Taiwan continues to slip through Beijing's fingers
- Half the population lives on less than 4% of the land in Taiwan
- Great piece at Bloomberg by Tim Culpan on China, Taiwan, and US chipmakers
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!
4 comments:
Hello Michael,
1) US-Taiwan:
I was also curious about Brian's recent comments; then again, after reading in more detail it struck me that he is just concerned about the unpredictable behavior of the US recently and therefore advising Taiwan to make sure it plans thoroughly on its own to protect its de facto independence. That hints at a more proactive stance for Taiwan rather than one completely at the mercy of US foreign policy.
That seems like a fair enough point; but as you note, he overstates the case and - more problematically - makes the point to a general audience unlikely to get the nuances.
Certainly US foreign policy has a lot of inertia: regardless of the chaotic PR this year from North Korea to Russia, and the contradictory signals to allies and the world, the sheer size and structure of the US administration means little has actually changed.
For a key country and strategic node (or "pawn" if you like) such as Taiwan, as long as there are enough people in senior US positions who understand the strategic criticality of Taiwan vis a vis Asia-Pacific security, US-Japan security, etc., then it is unlikely for a sudden off-hand comment to change the fundamentals of US position.
All US administrations include a mix of helpful and unhelpful individuals vs the Taiwan issue; compared to the past couple administrations, the current one - for all its foibles - includes a better representation from the "helpful" camp. This is encouraging as it means that, if anyone in the administration needs reminding, internally there are knowledgeable voices with a deep understanding of Taiwan's relevance.
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2) Kenting Tourism:
Separately, as for Kenting: I visit frequently and there is a noticeable drop-off in domestic tourists this summer for some reason. No one seems to know exactly why: Kenting itself is as beautiful as usual, with the came annoying aspects mentioned in your link as always, but nothing that would otherwise seem to change domestic tourism interest.
Any ideas? One comment from a charter driver was that this year most of Taiwan's summer holiday students are going to Hualien instead, in an effort to help Hualien bounce back from the recent earthquake damage. The reasoning sounded a bit too altruistic to my jaded mind, but perhaps Hualien is offering discounts and incentives that are working to attract domestic visitors away from Kenting?
In the meantime, at least within some niche sectors (i.e. surfing) there is a marked increase in Japanese visitors to Kenting as its profile in Japanese surfing circles rises. A locally based Japanese surf guide was frustrated by the lack of awareness in Japan about Taiwan's potential as next-door tropical surf; so he took the initiative to start uploading daily 15-second video glimpses of east Hengchun Penninsula and Kenting surf spots, food and environment; and almost immediately got a large following and reaction from Japanese online, many of whom have already made plans to visit.
https://ja-jp.facebook.com/nagabayashitakashi/
It's a good case study of the disproportionate payback on a bit of active tourism marketing to let the world know about Taiwan's tourism attractiveness, for a targeted sector. If the Taiwan government is listening, take note! Without a costly government budget, but with just one private individual doing some proactive and creative use of social media and fluency in target language (in this case, Japanese), at minimal cost, the increase in new visitors from Japan who would otherwise need to go farther to Thailand or Indonesia. (and the guy deserves some kind of medal!)
Only a 2 hour flight from Osaka, the east side of the Hengchun Penninsula, running northward all along Taitung, has astonishingly good surf, surprisingly pristine water, and nice people. Awesomeness.
Brian does some great and important work but I disagree with what seems to me like a knee-jerk ideological response to the US, in a time and neighborhood where mere survival requires pragmatic, realistic thinking. The problem with and reason I broke with the liberal left is their naive belief in international rules and order, stemming from ignorance of how violent and cut-throat the world is outside our privileged and polite circles. I see a similar lack of historical thinking with young Koreans and Europeans who hate America and have no idea what their peace and prosperity has been built upon.
Excess salt leads to high blood pressure, Senpai.
Thanks for the excellent comment, anon.
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