Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Robert Sutter Rocks on China

Danger lurks behind every leaf.

Robert Sutter, the longtime US government Taiwan specialist, nails it in a brilliant piece saying, essentially, it's about time the US actually imposed some costs on China for its behavior. He then goes on to lay out some of the actions that the US can take. That the piece is at CSIS, a corporate establishment thinktank which usually advocates unicorns and rainbows for China, is even more impressive. The key point for us is the Taiwan part [emphasis mine]:
2)Taiwan is an area of acute sensitivity for China; one where the United States has several options to raise significant costs for China. As the United States seeks to check China’s recent coercion and intimidation of neighbors, it could devote more attention to Taiwan – which has faced unbridled Chinese military coercion and intimidation for almost two decades. One option is to complicate Chinese defense plans and overall strategy toward Taiwan by allowing the sale of the 66 F-16 fighter jet long sought by the Taiwan government. The cost to China of such action involves not just the planes themselves but the significance of the substantial US demonstration of support for Taiwan in the face of China’s pressure and threats. Another option would involve a more active US posture in support of Taiwanese free expression and identity represented by the so-called Sunflower Movement on the island. Beijing has shown no postive response to the rising importance of such demonstrations of Taiwan identity at odds with Chinese interests. The demonstrations tend to support Taiwan’s political opposition’s wariness on dealing with China. US support for such expressions of Taiwanese identity could further shift Taiwan politics in favor of the opposition against the unpopular government of President Ma Ying-jeou. China would face costly and difficult reevaluation of its reasonably successful policy toward Taiwan, should the opposition win the 2016 presidential election.
Hello! We out here have been advocating these two positions for a while now. Good to see someone in Washington catching up. As I pointed out in 2011:

In need of an update, but still relevant. I'll note once again, as I have so many times, that the constant call for a sell out of Taiwan simply moves the defense against China back to the Senkakus -- uninhabited rocks, without 23 million people who don't want to be part of China, armed forces, and a forward position. Taiwan is a massive inconsistency in US strategy. Not does the US not include it in this strategy, the US even supports the pro-China party in Taiwan. Should they survive our climate policies, future historians will scratch their heads in puzzlement....
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7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Good find and good read, thanks!

ohgee said...

I'm sure a weapon sale improves the bottom line of US General Dynamics. I'm not sure how it helps peace in the region.

Michael Turton said...

By keeping China from moving toward military action because of Taiwan's weakness.

Michael

Anonymous said...

Starting or contributing to an arms race in East Asia does nothing for peace in the region.

Michael Turton said...

Anon, tell it to the perps across the Strait. Easy to lecture the weak who nurture democratic ideals.

Michael

Michael Turton said...

WP! thanks for the links!

Michael

Anonymous said...

I am not sure Obama administration will do much on Asia now. Middle East and Ukraine will occupy most of current administration's time and effort.

I think issues in Asia will be left for next administration.

Some have also argued that Sunflower movement actually let Xi Jinping off the hook since the movement proved that new strategy is need in dealing with Taiwan so Xi can takes his time to formulate new approach and Taiwan is no longer his top priority.

This might give Taiwan people time to think about who they want to choose to lead them after 2016.