Friday, November 15, 2013

The Gambia Bolts

...and the bottom dropped out of the road.

I've been traveling in Sabah and was reminded of how wild things are down there by the sobering news of Taiwanese tourists killed on a small island off the lovely east coast. But that news was overshadowed by the big news that The Gambia has cut ties with the ROC. WSJ reports:
Taiwan said Friday that it felt "shock and regret" from the announcement, and believed Gambia's president Yahya Jammeh made the decision unilaterally without pressure from China.

"Right now it appears this was a personal decision made by Gambia's President Jammeh," said Simon Ko, deputy foreign minister, at a news conference on Friday.

Mr. Jammeh had cited "strategic national interest" as the reason he cut ties on Thursday, according to media reports from Gambia.

Beijing said it was caught unawares by Gambia's decision. "We learned the news from foreign media reports. There was no contact between China and Gambia," the official Xinhua News Agency quoted foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei as saying.
This seems to be the idea in all the reports; China hasn't engineered this. Hard to tell, though. This will be a test of Ma's policy toward China -- will they let The Gambia drift? Or sweep it into their maw? Almost certainly the latter, as China has been busy building business and development ties with Africa while the US bombs the crap out of things there and in the Middle East.

Everyone always expresses worry that Taiwan will be cut off and fall into Beijing's maw like a ripe plum. I was wondering: Those "diplomatic allies" of the ROC "Taiwan" as the ROC and the rightful government of China. In other words they recognize a Taiwan-China connection. Once you lop off Taiwan's links to those states, aren't you in effect making an isolated but independent Taiwan? I wonder if Beijing sees those connections differently because it is more sensitive to the way they reinforce Taiwan-China connections. In which case, it might want to shrink the number, but still preserve a few. Comments?

Comment below observes:
What about the possible influence of mainland Chinese businessman on the entire saga? The ROC government and news media remained quite clueless on this issue for several hours yesterday while the SCMP had a long report already in June on how mainlanders get HK residency under the Capital Investment Entrant Scheme (CIES) via permanent residency in Gambia first. HK has strict quota on CIES directly from mainland,so rich mainlanders buy Gambian residencies in China for HKD 80,000 per person without even going to the Gambia. Gambian residencies account for the largest group of CIES applications (17,746 earlier this year) with only 309 Chinese actually living in Gambia. It might be less a traditional diplomatic conflict rather than network diplomacy in full swing...
Link to SCMP article. A relevant portion:
Since the beginning of the Hong Kong immigration scheme, 9,050 successful CIES entrants from the mainland have cited permanent residency in The Gambia. The figures, provided by the Immigration Department this month, are as of March 31, the latest available numbers.Gambian residencies make up nearly 60 per cent of mainland applicants and 50 per cent of all 17,746 people who have received Hong Kong visas under the scheme. [1]The Gambia ranks No 1 among residency countries cited by CIES applicants. Guinea-Bissau falls second with 2,931 approved applications, Canada third with 1,207, and the Philippines fourth with 559.“An individual permanent residency in The Gambia costs 80,000 yuan [HK$101,240], a family application costs 100,000 yuan,” said Chen Yunjun, a Shenzhen-based agent with Qiaoshen Emigration Consulting. “One hundred per cent get approved.”“We started [selling] Gambian permanent residencies in Shenzhen in 2011,” she said. “Altogether, we have handled dozens so far.”Huaien Business Consulting, in Kunming, Yunnan province, offers similar prices for a Gambian permanent residency.“It’s 80,000 yuan per person," said a sales agent who gave only her last name as Yu."We can also get you a passport from Guinea-Bissau, we don’t do Gambian passports,” she said. “That would be 250,000 yuan.”Hong Kong agencies are more expensive. Beng Seng Immigration Consultants charges US$25,000 for an individual application, according to its website. A family application, including one underage child, costs US$32,000. Every additional child costs US$1,000 more.Dozens of visa agencies advertise Gambian residency as a way of getting into Hong Kong through CIES.
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6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Wonder if there's any connection btw this action and the Gambia's nose-dive in the corruption index. I smell a backroom deal...

WP said...

The Gambian president thinks he knows on which side his bread is buttered. PRC is sinking billions into Africa and he wants a piece of the action. Taiwan should tell Gambia to return the millions of dollars it has given to Gambia over the years for health, education, and welfare. Will Sao Tome and Principe be next? Taiwan needs a plan. WP

Anonymous said...

… as if ROC relations with The Gambia were not the result of back room deals.

This is more like double dealing.

The president of The Gambia and his cronies took all the kickbacks and inflated aid packages, which were probably diverted to enrich themselves… before accepting another set of kickbacks and aid packages from China to renege on the prior agreement with the ROC. What is Ma Ying-jiu going to do… sue them? Invade?… recall the representatives?

The faster Taiwan can divest itself of these delusional leaches that keep up the artifice that the ROC represents the government of China, the faster Taiwan's government can seek recognition as being representative of Taiwan and its people.

Malte said...

What about the possible influence of mainland Chinese businessman on the entire saga? The ROC government and news media remained quite clueless on this issue for several hours yesterday while the SCMP had a long report already in June on how mainlanders get HK residency under the Capital Investment Entrant Scheme (CIES) via permanent residency in Gambia first. HK has strict quota on CIES directly from mainland,so rich mainlanders buy Gambian residencies in China for HKD 80,000 per person without even going to the Gambia. Gambian residencies account for the largest group of CIES applications (17,746 earlier this year) with only 309 Chinese actually living in Gambia. It might be less a traditional diplomatic conflict rather than network diplomacy in full swing...

Michael Turton said...

Malte, thanks. I remember reading about that, vaguely. Nice analysis.

Michael

Anonymous said...

Some1 commented on this piece
http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2013/new/nov/19/today-t1.htm

I think this actually answers your question about isolating Taiwan, though he obviously is pro Taiwan Indepence.

傅雲欽 · 建國廣場-負責人
看到甘比亞斷交就大罵政府的蠢蛋根本不了解台灣外交政策的荒謬性。
台灣不敢宣佈獨立,所謂正式外交就是跟北京搶中國代表權,花錢叫人家承認台北是代表中國的政府。幾十年來都是如此。何必如此辛苦為大中國作嫁衣裳?台灣不敢獨立,就應該與小朋友國家全部斷交,外交徹底休兵,維持實質關係就好。這樣可省一大筆冤枉錢。
台獨才有台灣自己的外交。不台獨都是在替中國作外交。台灣代表團被小朋友國家稱為中國代表團China Delegation。小朋友國家拿錢不是感謝台灣人,而是感謝(來自台灣的)中國人。台灣錢給少了,小朋友國家往往就把駐中國大使館從台北搬到北京。幾十年來都是如此。
有人說台灣應該感謝那些小朋友國家,因為它們敢承認台灣是一個國家,在聯合國不斷得幫台灣爭取進聯合國的機會。不!小朋友國家不是承認台灣是一個國家(國家承認),而是承認台灣政府代表中國的政府(政府承認)。小朋友國家承認台灣政府代表中國的政府是昧著良心,不合國際常規,不可能對台灣進入聯合國有任何幫助。又這種承認對台灣的影響是混淆台灣人視聽,妨害台灣獨立建國。台灣對此沒有什麼好感謝的。