Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Hegemonic Conflict Watch: US Responds to China's ADIZ =UPDATED=

Wow (Yahoo):
Two US B-52 bombers flew over a disputed area of the East China Sea without informing Beijing, US officials said Tuesday, challenging China's bid to create an expanded air defense zone.

The flight of the giant Stratofortress planes sent a clear signal that Washington would push back against what it considers an aggressive stance by Beijing in the region.

The move also represented a robust show of US support for Japan, which is locked in a mounting dispute with Beijing over disputed islands in the East China Sea.

The unarmed bombers took off from Guam on Monday on a scheduled flight, as part of what defense officials insisted was a routine exercise dubbed "Coral Lightning Global Power Training Sortie."
This was exactly the right move. China still nurses fantasies of splitting Japan from the US, while pursuing policies that are actually driving Tokyo closer to Washington. The time when Beijing could have wooed Tokyo passed several years ago, thanks to Beijing's belligerent attitude...

One function of this ADIZ declaration is thus to show Tokyo that Washington won't support it in the pinch. This move has precedent -- at least one motive for the Sino-Vietnamese War was for Beijing to demonstrate that the treaty between Hanoi and Moscow was simply a worthless piece of paper. There too China's ostensible motive was islands (Spratly Islands) and alleged mistreatment of ethnic Chinese minorities in Vietnam, eerie echoes of China's bogus claim to the Senkakus and its claim that Taiwan should be part of China because they are all one big happy culture.

Hence, Washington's move was exactly the right move -- giving the middle finger to Beijing, but not using something more aggressive, like a fighter sweep. Kudos to the White House and Pentagon for this move. Hopefully now with the beginning of serious negotiations with Iran, the Obama Administration can shift the US perspective away from its hopeless fixation on that sideshow of a sideshow in the Middle East to Asia, where the future is.

Good work, guys. Very happy to see this.

UPDATE: Probably be on this one all day as news flows in. The Diplomat with a great write-up which observes:
There has been some dispute among defense experts about whether China has the capability to actually enforce its conditions. Defense News quoted an unnamed U.S. defense industry source located in Asia as saying, “Let China run itself crazy trying to enforce this. I just can’t see how China will sustain the enforcement. Too much traffic goes through there. If no country recognizes it, [and] don’t respond to China’s IFF [identification friend or foe] interrogation or VID [visual identification], then this new ADIZ is meaningless.”

Notably, China’s announcement also won it the ire of South Korea, one of the few states in the region that Beijing had thus far avoided offending over sovereignty issues in the past few years. According to the Wall Street Journal, China’s new ADIZ overlaps with about 3,000 square kilometers of South Korea’s own ADIZ. It also encloses Ieodo (Suyan) Rock that South Korea administers but China also claims. Seoul and Beijing will discuss the issue an already scheduled vice defense ministerial-level strategic dialogue in the South Korean capital this week.
Way to go, Beijing! Totally unnecessarily peeving erstwhile friend. This is all about Beijing appealing to domestic audiences. Scary, because those right-wingers aren't going to be appeased until they and others are bleeding...

_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think this is also a bit of a wake-ip call to the acquiesce-ists who feel the throwing Taiwan to China will sate China's ambitions. It really telegraphs China's designs for Taiwan.

Marc said...

"Coral Lightning Global Power Training Sortie" sounds like one of those management training workshops designed to make you a more powerful executive.

les said...

The real test here will be of who goes along with the ADIZ requirements and who doesn't. If the major airlines obey, the Chinese will win this one. I can only see that leading to a further expansion of this ADIZ to cover more of the area that Beijing already considers to be it's private lake...

Anonymous said...

the funny thing is, i don't even think normal Chinese are demanding this, at all. from what i can tell on the ground, everyone is back to buying toyotas and hondas. the whole issue has faded from collective memory.

this can only be to appease aggressive generals. the common people simply don't care about this anymore, and haven't for months.

Unknown said...

ALJ reports the US as saying none of it's aircraft, military or civilian, will notify the Chinese about operations in this area.

Matong's limp-wristed, apologist, fellow-expansionist response: Control of airspace != sovereignty.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2013/11/27/2003577755

les said...

"giving the middle finger to Beijing, but not using something more aggressive, like a fighter sweep"

Maybe the idea was to put up aircraft which both paint a much bigger blip on the radar screens and also have no systems on board for self-defense. Much less likely to provide Chinese fighters with an excuse to engage them and no way to claim they were endangering those fighters when something goes wrong. Smart move indeed.

Mike Fagan said...

Will the Chinese now claim a second such ADIZ over the South China Sea..., or will they wait?

John Herodotus said...

What bothers me about this episode is that China appears to be unable to communicate a credible, intelligible threat. An unusual quality for an entity of its size.

When people make threats but cannot carry them out, it makes calculation on everybody else's part more fraught. We don't know who we're dealing with or what they want. It also makes the threatener appear weak and encourages him to do something more precipitous in the future to repair the loss.

Ferocious, crazy, and weak, as Stratfor dubs it in North Korea's case.

Anonymous said...

There are some good comments and links on this article:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-28/china-deploys-warplanes-air-defense-zone-aircraft-carrier-passes-through-taiwan-stra

Anonymous said...

I don't think the international community's reaction is as interesting as how Ma Ying-jiu might react. I bet he'll comply.

WP said...

Here's an interesting article in the Diplomat about Taiwan's dilemma over China's new ADIZ.
http://thediplomat.com/2013/11/chinas-adiz-taiwans-dilemma/

Anonymous said...

Anon-

In fact, Taiwan is the only country of the region that seems to be complying with China's demands.

les said...

@WP: Matong is in compliance.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2013/11/27/2003577755

I have a friend who flies 747s for China Airlines. They have complied with requests from Chinese air traffic controllers to ID themselves for a long time already, whether they are going to transition through their airspace or not, so this doesn't change anything for them.

Willow Moon said...

The road China has chosen to take will come back to bit them in the hind end and the bit will be worse then they could ever imagine, now we will know when one of them winks but I believe that Taiwan holds the upper hand and main land china is just whistling Dixie!!