Saturday, November 09, 2013

ECFA Double Strike is Total Success

Guinea pigs at a miniature recreational farm in Taichung near Shihgang.

A friend of mine remarks on the email on the latest Taiwan trade figures, putting numbers on what all of us said would happen with ECFA:

You have to combine that info with the latest figures for China trade to have the full picture: China's October exports rose 5.6% and its imports rose 7.6%. In Taiwan, all exports were down 1.5% and exports to China decreased 5.5%. So Chinese imports increase strongly when Taiwan exports to China decrease...

What's going on?

Of course many factors here, but it also means that ECFA is working exactly as predicted by real economists: Taiwan exports are declining as Taishang have relocated their whole food-chain in China, enabling them to feed Taiwan-, foreign-, and Chinese-owned companies end-products from within China rather than importing them from Taiwan.

Meanwhile, Taiwan imports from China keep on increasing, passing for the first time ever imports from Japan in the past two months...

Lower exports, higher imports with China: the ECFA double-strike is a total success. Expect the same and more if the service investment agreement is passed by the LY.

China trade figures:
Full Taiwan trade stat:
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Anonymous said...

Who couldn't see this coming. Even us dumb foreigners got this right.

Michael Turton said...

Yep. It was obvious.