President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) holds a 7.3 point lead over Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), a poll by the Taiwanese Association for Pacific Ocean Development (TAPOD) showed yesterday.Ma up by 7.3? Even the TVBS poll only has Ma up by six. Moreover Ma is downward trending in the prediction market this week (though he picked up yesterday) and bookies are now giving even odds with a spread of 300K votes. Further, no other poll has Tsai below 33 -- TAPOD has her at 30, meaning her support has been reduced to core pan-Greens. This poll is thus an outlier. Why?
You said the poll appeared to refute analysts who said the DPP had recently gained momentum following several successful campaign rallies and fund-raising events, and that the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) was reeling after Ma’s talk of a possible peace pact with China.
The question about who will you vote for does not ask likely voters as other polls do. Instead, it asks the entire sample and gives a range of choices. -- not vote, protest vote (fei piao), wait and see, etc, along with Ma, Tsai, and Soong. Interestingly, Ma remains at 38, roughly where he is in other polls, and Soong at 9.7%, almost exactly where he is in other polls. The only real difference is the unusual gap here between Tsai's TAPOD numbers and those of other polls.
When asked who would win, 47% said Ma, just 26.9% said Tsai. In the prediction market, Tsai is about 2 points up on Ma. At the moment.... bookies have them even with a tiny spread. But in TAPOD the margin for predicted outcome is 20%.
Is this poll reliable?
On the instant replay:
You said the poll appeared to refute analysts who said the DPP had recently gained momentum following several successful campaign rallies....Yep, it sure does refute that contention that everyone else is making.... what a coincidence, eh? If I were paranoid, I might think it was supposed to do that.
The differing sample is not mentioned in TT and other stories (FocusTaiwan). FocusTaiwan says that the TAPOD Sept poll had Ma ahead of Tsai by a point. So did GVSRC's public data at that time -- the private data had Tsai ahead of Ma.
The head of TAPOD is a former Vice MAC Chair from the Chen era (a speech). Its website in Chinese (台灣太平洋發展協會). Here is the dataset for its poll.
UPDATED: China Times poll for Nov 7 has Ma up by 4. Newly released Nov 4 TVBS poll has Ma only up by 3. Your guess is as good as mine as to how reliable this TAPOD poll is.
UPDATE 2: I have heard that Michael Ying-lung You, the head of TAPOD, like many other DPP members who make negative public comments about Tsai, was angry that he was not on the party list. I was told but can't verify, that TAPOD's funding comes from Wu Tse-chia (吳子嘉), another Tsai basher and chairman of 美麗島電子報 (http://www.my-formosa.com/) -- a website publishing political analysis and highly critical of the DPP.
As a friend put it, the fundamental reason behind all this is the DPP's lingering factionalism. We get this every election -- ike Yang Chiu-hsiung leaving the DPP in Kaohsiung for the mayoral election last year because he couldn't wait his turn. It is also fallout of the ridiculous "reform" of the legislature several years ago that reduced the number of seats, more heavily burdened legislators, and left fewer posts to be handed to party members.
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