Saturday, November 26, 2011

Robin Hood, Registration, Porcine Power

Robin Hood piggy banks.

It was registration week this week. Tsai formally registered her candidacy on Wednesday. "I believe we will win and we will win because we have you," she said to her followers. Ma registered a couple of days earlier, with he and Wu sporting white t-shirts with the KMT's ridiculous red Taiwan amulet that looks like something worn to ward off demons in a Hong Kong B-movie. Soong registered last. I find it hard to credit that he'll remain in an election he can't win merely to support his fading party and spite Ma; on the other hand, I can't see him leaving the election either. If the KMT had a lick of sense they'd have lived with a Soong presidency in 2000 and 2004, but they ran the unpopular and offputting Lien Chan both times. Thankfully.....

Last week when I stopped by the opening of the joint Lin Chia-lung/Tsai Ing-wen DPP HQ on the south side of The Chung, I was appalled to hear Tsai refer to an international media report that had framed Tsai as a "Robin Hood." This had fired up both her and the crowd. The DPP has now gone on, just as it had with the original donation case, to use this in its campaign materials. Above is a nifty pic from a sharp observer of local politics of Robin Hood Piggies. The little piggy is now an unstoppable symbol of the Tsai campaign. The report in question appears to be an AP piece by Annie Huang, and it makes it clear what a powerful challenge Tsai is offering to Ma:
The piggy campaign is a salient reminder that not all Taiwanese politics revolves around the issue of the island's complex relations with China, from which it split amid civil war in 1949. While that issue tends to garner the most interest abroad, Taiwanese themselves are usually more concerned with bread and butter questions such as wages, inflation and jobs.

Taiwan's economy has fared relatively well in recent years, avoiding the slow growth syndrome that has afflicted most of the West. But complaints over rising income inequality have been mounting, fueled by a residential building boom that seems largely reserved for high-wage earners and a shift in the labor market that appears to punish relatively unskilled or undereducated workers.

That has provided a big political opening for Tsai Ing-wen, the 54-year-old DPP presidential candidate, and the star of the suddenly trendy piggy bank campaign.
Unusual for the international media, it actual mentions that domestic concerns drive the campaign. Kudos to AP for making that clear. Moreover, the piece leaves the definite impression that Tsai is looking strong. I'd just like to thank AP for providing that little Robin Hood stimulus for the good guys.

Of course AP still uses the asinine and erroneous "split in 1949" formula. This is sheer pig-headed obstinancy for the sake of being obstinate, as AP has been informed of reality many times and it would cost them nothing to write accurate representations of history. Sad, isn't it?

The piece also uses weasel words "supposed" "perceived" whenever it refers to Ma's weakenesses. For example, "incumbent Ma Ying-jeou and his supposedly capitalist cronies" is used. Huang has been reporting from Taipei for many years, presumably she must know that Ma is the favorite of Big Business and has Wall Street's support. You'd have to be living in a cave not to know that.

Moreover, the comparison of the two candidates' respective family origins as "privileged" is misleading -- Tsai's father was a businessman who made his money by working hard and investing smart, Ma owes his position to the fact that KMT murdered and imprisoned and exiled thousands of people in the 50s, 60s, and 70s to create and maintain the privileges of individuals like Ma. Yeah, I'm not going to let you forget what Ma comes from, since the international media has declared discussion of Taiwan's authoritarian past off limits in relation to Ma.

Still, it's good to see AP out there reporting, however reluctantly, that Tsai is running a powerful campaign.

TIME interviewed both candidates. Ma is totally on message, speaking to the foreign audience from its own perspective, China policy, weapons sales, etc. I like the way that Tsai mentions Taiwan is one of many nations facing the China problem (end of the interview). Ma seldom speaks as if he thought of Taiwan were a nation in the family of nations; for Tsai this is automatic.

Lots can happen in the next six weeks, but Tsai has positioned herself well. Ballots and Bullets has a nice piece by Dr Jon Sullivan on the ineptitude currently governing the KMT campaign that is partly responsible for her growing success.

Lately many of us have been privately discussing what sort of dirty tricks the KMT will pull in the last few weeks of the election. Frozen Garlic openly wondered if this election was going to get really nasty. As if in response, Dr Sullivan also wrote about one of them most common and important KMT smear tactics -- accusing the DPP of dirty tricks. However, Sullivan has actually written a paper on the topic, which he references:
Using empirical data derived from seven presidential and subnational campaigns between 1996 and 2008, our models provide a robust picture of campaign behaviour in Taiwan. Our findings simply do not support Ma’s (or many of his predecessors’) concerns about DPP skulduggery. In fact, our models show that after controlling for a range of covariates (incumbency, closeness of the race, time to election etc), there are no statistically significant differences between the two main parties in terms of their proclivity to ‘go negative’ or to engage in a certain type of negative campaigning.

There is, however, a statistically significant difference between the parties in terms of what we (euphemistically) call in the paper ‘negative strategic appeals’. This includes the type of claim that Ma made yesterday, and our models suggest this is true to form. Indeed, it is so spot on that I will simply excerpt the relevent paragraph from the paper’s conclusion:
Go forth and read! J Michael Cole pointed to what he sees as a crucial story -- if Tsai is elected, there will be a four month interregnum before she takes over in which the KMT can do all sorts of dirty tricks. I don't know how ugly things will get in that event -- remember this is the party that has staged riots after election losses, so they don't take losing well -- but you can be certain that this period will be filled with massive giveaways of government assets to favored corporate backers, as usual -- but on a much accelerated basis....
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30 comments:

Anonymous said...

Michael, I think you consistently only look at one side of the issue. While DPP was in power, in order to put certain people in certain positions in the intelligence organization, they would sent people into China, then leak the information out abroad so that the person sent would get caught. Very unpatriotic and unethical. This is only one part of the what DPP does. I do not think that Tsai, with the persons she currently have on her team, have the power to prevent something like this from happening again. Even if she personally is not like that. Remember, when we elect a candidate, it's in fact the party and it's ethics as a whole that we elect. Just focusing on Tsai blindly ignores lots of problems.

George

George

Michael Turton said...

Remember, when we elect a candidate, it's in fact the party and it's ethics as a whole that we elect

Precisely. So we can agree that electing a party that murdered its opponents is worse than electing one that doesn't, right?

Anonymous said...

"...he and Wu sporting...the KMT's ridiculous red Taiwan amulet that looks like something worn to ward off demons in a Hong Kong B-movie"

They didn't by any chance also have a yellow piece of paper stuck to their foreheads. Just wonderin'...

Anonymous said...

Who murdered who Michael?

George

Michael Turton said...

You're joking, right? The KMT regime murdered thousands of people here in Taiwan, and millions in China. It sent tens of thousands to prison or into exile. So please, when you complain that the DPP may have done something with spies in China (evidence please), it is nothing compared to what the KMT has done and is doing.

Anonymous said...

Michael,
I think if you just have to dwell on the history, it's very unfortunate for you. If the US dwell on how the UK treated the people in the colonial residents, what would the world be like? Nobody likes the misfortune that happened in the past, nor does anyone know what the true story is. From what I can tell, your way of viewing things actually has more similarity with how the Communists tagged people to be the "黑五類", even people living there now know that it was not right nor fair. Do you know exactly who in the Government now had actually participated in the activities you imply back then? Let's get down to the specifics so that we can get more facts.

George

Michael Turton said...

LOL -- recognizing that the current KMT government owes its position and power to the fact that previous KMT governments were mass murderers is not "dwelling on history" but a call for justice and a recognition of what the KMT is.

I'm curious to know when we are "dwelling on history." Explain to me why it you aren't "dwelling on history" when you mention what you think are DPP problems of the previous Administration, but I am when I mention the current and previous corrupt habits -- the vast black markets, the killings, the faction politics, the involvement of organized crime in local politics, etc etc etc. These are all things that either exist or continue to affect politics in Taiwan today.

Michael

Anonymous said...

Additionally Michael, during the same regime, the development of Taiwan by far exceeded what any other Chinese Government had done in the past, and possible such development would never had come into reality if the KMT did not move to Taiwan. This is the same development that you came to enjoy leaving your own country.

Again, I stress, we here in Taiwan can only remember all the bad things and not focus on the best that can be done for the future, Taiwan will never have a future.

I hope this is not your intention.

George

Anonymous said...

Michael,
Throughout the years, I have seen a steady decline in bribes and corruption. The DPP administration for some reason suddenly corruption was such that it occurred at the presidential level is probably the first I have seen in Taiwan, and hopefully the last. I think if you review research done on how corruptive countries are, you will have a better appreciation.

In many countries, including the US, there will be money involved for lobbying for something. Generally it is done without any direct evidence of bribing, this is because when any decision is made, there is always a sound reason other than being bribed.

George

Anonymous said...

BTW Michael,

Would you like being hated for what you parents or grandparents did? Would you like taking the blame? I look at any party the same way. Chen did the wrong thing during his term in office, but when we judge Tsai's capability, we look at the immediate possibilities of whom she might take into office. Some things she is doing good, and some things she is lacking at. Now, if today she were running for Taichung Mayor, I think she has a better chance of being a good Mayor. President? I just don't think so.

George

Robert Scott Kelly said...

Michael wrote:

"I'm curious to know when we are "dwelling on history."

From many conversations with blue friends I believe history extends back from the day before Chen Shui Bian became president. Lee Teng Hui if they are particularly hardcore. Everything after these milestones are current affairs. The 90s then are usually fair game; the 80s not. The 70s might as well be the middle ages with the subsequent excusing of crimes as how can we possibly judge the actions of people from such a different world?

Anonymous said...

The KMT always implored people to "not dwell on history", and then attempts to use "history" to validate Chinese claims to Taiwan.

Anonymous said...

Validate China claims on Taiwan? It was the other way round ever since the establishment of ROC. Also in the Constitution.

Anonymous said...

I kind of have a similar feeling as Robert Scott Kelly. DPP had spent tremendous effort trying to distance themselves from Chen, and it is a new start for them. I think we should give Tsai some credit in this effort. If DPP has good people that climb from Mayors and also enter into Government entities to make changes, that would be great. For some time 陳菊 seemed to be doing well, but we do not hear much about her now. Possibly like Jason Hu of Taichung trying to keep a low profile?

I have seen many good changes in Government services. I also see much construction going up, not that it is all good, but things are moving. These are places where we need the expertise and the motivation to do exceptional things. Just and example, if you driver down a road in Taichung, you will come across roads with lines that zigs, and two sides of a cross road will not have the lanes matched up; a clear indication that the people whom planned them has never tried to follow the lines themselves, these are people that probably ride scooters and have no understanding that 90% of the time if cars followed the lines, traffic would be a mess with accidents. I also almost had an accident with a car simply because the traffic light both ways did not have the same timing, so if you assumed that when the other side is red when you are finishing your left turn at a cross road, it would be detrimental.

George

Anonymous said...

Judging from many 100-year of the Republic displays I've seen - notably one in particular was on display in the office lobby of TPE101 - basically erases the Lee and Chen periods. It was CKS, then CCK, then Ma, with Hau is waiting in the wings.

My Taiwanese friends remind me often of how little they still know of their Taiwan history. The brainwashing has been terribly effective - as evidenced by this George person.

Anonymous said...

Comparisons between todays KMT and the KMT of 50+ years ago are not in the slightest bit valid. You do yourself no favors by trying to show a link between then two.

Anonymous said...

"udging from many 100-year of the Republic displays I've seen - notably one in particular was on display in the office lobby of TPE101 - basically erases the Lee and Chen periods. It was CKS, then CCK, then Ma, with Hau is waiting in the wings.

My Taiwanese friends remind me often of how little they still know of their Taiwan history. The brainwashing has been terribly effective - as evidenced by this George person."

On thing I can say for sure, if Chen had not been involved in such massive corruption, he would have ended up in the hall of fame as the first non-KMT president. That would have been a very memorable milestone in Taiwan democracy history; however, he chose to make his mark a different way.

No Government is going to be perfect in everyone's eyes, but it is important to weight the good and bad prudently. If the people cannot do this, then there will be no improvement.

I would like to point out that Taiwan history had, and is even still taught along with normal history classes. This covers much more than what you probably would learn in US education. How many people know history of the Indians of America? Driving though some of those regions, I found fantastic paintings in the caves. From an educational point of view, the purpose is to prepare the young for the future, knowing enough from the past provides a purpose of learning lessons from them whether it be foreign history, Chinese history, or Taiwan history.


George

Michael Turton said...

Comparisons between todays KMT and the KMT of 50+ years ago are not in the slightest bit valid. You do yourself no favors by trying to show a link between then two.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. Thanks for the humor, very enjoyable.

Guy said...

George: you obviously have much to say. I urge you to start your own blog where you can share your views of the world. Please stop piggybacking on Michael's work. Your trolling here has become tiresome.

Guy

J. Michael Cole 寇謐將 said...

@Michael T: Thanks for linking; however, the article I thought was really important, and which somehow doesn't appear to have caught readers' imagination, is the following:

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2011/11/24/2003519062

Anonymous said...

Guy,

I just comment on points that I see ridiculous, and contradicting to any documented records. I ask questions where I cannot seem so find sustaining information on. People that call me trolling really have nothing to support their claims. This has always been the case.

I believe in freedom of speech as much as anyone posting here. But some claims really should be backed by records that can be brought out to support the claim.

I know Michael probably likes Tsai, that is fine. Well educated quality campaigning should focus on the issues, and be responsible for what they say, and not be a parrot. I'm sure that Michael believes in what he says.

George

Anonymous said...

"the development of Taiwan by far exceeded what any other Chinese Government had done in the past"

This was accomplished by and large through generous aid (financial as well as technical) by the US, France and others nations. More Chinese propaganda, I think, to make everyone think the nationalists had the wherewithal to make it happen on their own.

Taiwan Tracker said...

Mr. George, please tell us when TAIWAN history was taught "side by side" NORMAL (???) history. And WTF do you mean by NORMAL history? Are you on crack?

les said...

George, how about you post from an ID so I can see your name at the top of the post and skip it, rather than have to scroll first to see if your name is at the bottom before decided to skip the post. It would save me so much time. kthxbye.

Anonymous said...

Taiwan Tracker,

"Normal history classes" are taught in elementary school through high school. It covers Chinese history, including Taiwan history, and foreign history which basically consists of Europe and America.

George

Jade said...

“It covers Chinese history, including Taiwan history..” You talk just like Ma. I just want to remind you that Many Taiwanese, like myself, don't consider ourselves Chinese. How could our history be part of Chinese history. You claim that writing comments on this blog is an exercise of freedom of speech, but when people make comments in support of DPP, they get "warned". And this the type of government that you say make progress. I hate to think but are you one of those who profit from KMT's being in power?

Anonymous said...

Jade,
If you compare against other countries, does Taiwan is doing well. Not the good compared to Some of the good Asian countries. However, I find it difficult to find adequate people to hire. Maybe I am in the wrong business. Too many people like to blame others instead of figuring out a way to stick with the competition these days.

George

Ben Goren said...

'George' reminds me of my Taiwan Politics professor at NCCU, son of a Chinese warlord, who unnecessarily introduced himself as politically 'independent' and then proceeded to muddy the waters anytime someone made a point critical of KMT actions, past or present. These 'independents' troll out the same memes again and again:
- KMT yesterday and today are different
- Transitional justice and reconciliation is the politics of revenge
- Be thankful the KMT made Taiwan the industrialised environmental basket case it is today whilst absenting that it would have been impossible without US aid
- Claim CKS and CCK were uncorrupt as counterpoint to Chen's 'incredible Marcos style corruption *gasp* oh the humanity'
- Whatever you think about the history of Taiwan no one knows the truth and no one ever will so no point in the blame game or looking for someone to take responsibility
- DPP is party of violence just like KMT
- 70's was a golden age and education was without political interference
- Tsai is not ready and even if she is her party hasn't reformed: 'Green Terror' will return
- We're part of China now and that's the future. There's no point in 'looking backwards' and trying to change anything because Taiwan doesn't have a choice and can only make a deal with the Devil to save itself.
If you hear any of these memes you know you're dealing with a True Blue pretending to be independent, dressed as a fatalist.

George: Can you answer this question for me? What would be your rationale for maintaining and increasing the time given to teaching Chinese history as a large part of the History curriculum for Taiwanese students? Would you object to Chinese history being merged with 'World History' and if so, why?

Anonymous said...

Ben,

I think students nowadays have much more to learn that in the old days. The only reason for having a History curriculum is to just give the younger generation an understanding how the current world came to be. If someone is interested in studying more detail, they may choose it as a major. We are not going to remember much of what we learned through high school, but the important thing hopefully we can learn is to not repeat mistakes that occurred in history. So, considering what students need to learn as a whole, my opinion would be it is not necessary to increase time spent on history, but rather find a way to arrange how it is taught to that students learn rather than memorize. Bear in mind the students and lots of teachers alike, do not think history is important. This attitude should change, and by such change, hopefully students learn with interest rather than just memorizing.

As far as merging Chinese history with World History, in the past, I think is was not taught in these two categories when we were learning it, it seemed to have been by regions such as China,Europe, America,and the more influence the region had on development of the world as it has become today, plus the amount of years involved, the more content. I do not think much time had been spent one teaching other countries.

So if the goal is to just let the students know how this world came to be, it's much better to study by the region and it's influence.

George

Anonymous said...

Ben,

I just wanted to separately respond to the political part of your post. There are many things that happen in history of which we will never know the full truth. For example, do we really know why the some countries just invade other countries? We always only see part of the explanation that is passed around. Was there really weapons of mass destruction when the US invaded whatever that country was? There we hear many tales but none are going to be the whole story, so why built hatred on things that you know only partly about? We know that the fact that it occurred was not good, and hopefully avoid it. People can remember fighting in the Taiwan legislature, and who was the first to start this, is that good? No, we know why that started. Did it create some influence on future politics? I would like to say yes. Is it good to continually do it? No! That kind of fighting occurred under those specific conditions. As democracy has advanced in Taiwan, it would not be the right thing to do anymore. It was fun watching it though.

I don't know what KMT or DPP members may think, but anything that happened in history has good and bad consequences, and we need to weight them prudently and to learn from them.

George