Thursday, November 24, 2011

Presidential Election: The Journalist on AIT Polls and WSJ on the Election

In Liu Shih-chung's summary of trends in the election in the Taipei Times today, there was this nugget:
A month later, the most recent polls — including those of the KMT-favoring China Times and TVBS — have shown a tie between Ma and Tsai. Other polls released by the Future Exchange Institution and the American Institute in Taiwan showed Tsai is leading Ma by 2 percent to 3 percent. Tsai and her DPP also garnered more support in areas traditionally considered KMT strongholds, such as central Taiwan and Hakka constituencies. Underground gambling circles have also cut their bets for Ma’s lead over Tsai from 600,000 votes to 200,000 votes.
The article Liu references in The Journalist on AIT presidential election polls is here. It seems odd that the US representative office commissioned its own polls on the election outcome, but no doubt they are as depressed as I am looking at the weird poll data that sprawls across the media like a deep-sea monster suddenly flung onto the deck of a fishing boat. If anyone out there at AIT could contact me to explain why they have their own polls, I'd be grateful.

Not only does The Journalist observe in the AIT poll Tsai is up 2-3 points over Ma, but also that AIT polls correctly predicted the outcomes in '00, 04, and 08. Tsai's upward trend has also caught the attention of the international media, with Paul Mozur scribing in WSJ:
Mr. Ma also is seen as making missteps on the issue of China, especially last month, when he proposed talks over a peace pact with Beijing within the decade that would go beyond the current economic rapprochement. Last week at a Foreign Correspondent's Club news conference, Mr. Ma's chief campaign strategist, King Pu-tsung admitted the campaign had failed to anticipate how sensitive the pact would be.

Meanwhile, Ms. Tsai seems to be increasingly gaining the support of independent voters with a campaign focused on social issues and growing Taiwan's domestic economy with policy points such as reducing restrictions against foreign professionals, growing the social safety net, and subsidies for farmers. Ms. Tsai also has made some inroads with the business community, traditionally a Kuomintang stronghold, with comments about China seen as more moderate than the platform of her pro-independence party.
Also kudos to Mozur for correctly labeling China as the source of tension and for pointing out that Tsai wants better relations with Beijing, thus avoiding regurgitating the pro-Beijing frames that so often dominate media discourse on Taiwan:
Ms. Tsai has said she supports improved relations with China, but her party backs independence from Beijing and China has historically responded negatively to DPP rule of Taiwan.
For an example of how not to do it, see the BBC piece I discuss here.
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11 comments:

Andrew Kerslake said...

Let's not count our piggies before they hatch. Lots of time for dirty tricks.

Michael Turton said...

shit yeah, cant wait to see the dirty trick on the way

les said...

No doubt next week KMT will be putting pressure on AIT not to run it's own polls...

RollingWave said...

You mean dirty tricks like a tape claiming to be the his opponents having an affair that turned out to be forgery (confirmed by US examinations) yeah those were awesome. (of course the same guy later came out and said that Frank Hsieh made him do it , Frank sued him and won, so it's obvious that the courts' owned by the KMT.)

Or maybe this time they'll make the gunshots even more realistic, instead of just shooting it through someone's face (obviously an easily achievable stunt!)

I'm not saying the KMT's hands are clean here, but it's quite dishonest to believe this is a one sided affair.

Michael Turton said...

Sure wish commenters would learn to read. No one claimed it was a one-sided affair.

But while we're talking, note that this claim about the tape is the only "dirty trick" you can come up with on the DPP side. Whereas KMT dirty tricks are mind-numbingly common.

As for the 2004 assassination attempt on Chen being a DPP black op, you'd have to have the political comprehension of a five year old to imagine the DPP planned that one. Not that evidence, reality, methodology, logic, or reason will ever enter into your view of the world.

Michael

Anonymous said...

Michael, I've just posted on an issue related to dirty tricks. One of the most frequent 'dirty tricks' uncovered in my research is how KMT candidates invoke the DPP 'smear campaign' and related imagined DPP skulduggery. In fact one of the outstanding findings in my analysis is how often KMT candidates rely on what I (charitably) call negative strategic appeals. I'll have a more systematic post later; the quick post is at http://nottspolitics.org/2011/11/25/refuting-the-dpp-smear-campaign/ Interested in your thoughts as always. Jon

Michael Turton said...

That's exactly right, Jon. That's brilliant.

Michael

Anonymous said...

Hello Michael!

I'm confused by this statement from the DPP ..."On the other hand, DPP legislator Chen Ming-wen (陳明文) yesterday acknowledged that the Chiayi County government, during his administration, had received monetary support from Chen Ying-chu, and said that the tycoon “is a good man.”

Can you please explain?

Dawoi

clazy8 said...

Is 2-3% even outside the margin of error? Realistically they seem to be in a dead heat; which isn't what you would prefer, but which is better than trailing.

Michael Turton said...

I'm confused by this statement from the DPP ..."On the other hand, DPP legislator Chen Ming-wen (陳明文) yesterday acknowledged that the Chiayi County government, during his administration, had received monetary support from Chen Ying-chu, and said that the tycoon “is a good man.”

Sorry, what's confusing about it? It says that a prominent local "businessman" pays off the local politicians in his area. This is confusing because.....?

Michael

Anonymous said...

RE: the Annie Huang, AP reporter in Taipei wrote the words heard 'round the world now: .....".... the soft-spoken Tsai has been transformed almost overnight from a wonkish intellectual whose privileged background allowed her to study abroad, into a ***Robin Hood-like heroine*** committed to lifting the poor from the hardships of life."

AND: by naming the three piggybanks RED for sunshine and GREEN for warmth and BLUE for TOLERANCE......the TOLERANCE idea and naming the last bank BLUE for the KMT blue crowd, this is WHY dr Tsai is going to win the election.

This simple magnanimous gesture of giving BLUE voters a chance to take part in her presidency with a BLUE bank for tolerance and diversity, this was stroke of PR genius and i am sure now SHE WILL WIN the election because of this one simple yet powerful gesture.

Watch!

- Ellen Gravytrain
Keelung