Wednesday, August 17, 2011

The looming war between the US and China continues to loom

Stupendously clear day in Miaoli yesterday.

Beijing is rebuffing efforts to set up crisis prevention protocols in the South China Sea, says the US. Oz reports:
"We have tried to make clear to China how important it is to put in place the institutions and policies to manage any incidents," said Kurt Campbell, the US State Department's senior official responsible for policy in Asia.

The US and Soviet Union put in place a number of agreements to contain Cold War mishaps from flaring into hot conflict, but China is declining all US approaches.

"We continue to underscore how important that is," Dr Campbell told the Herald in an interview. "More and more, Chinese and United States forces operate side by side. There's a need to have predictability on the high seas and above the high seas.''

China, which launched its first aircraft carrier last week, is increasingly asserting itself and has had mishaps and skirmishes with Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines and US in the last two years.
This rebuff is probably a violation of the Military Maritime Cooperation Agreement (MMCA) negotiated back during the Clinton Administration. I've heard that the quid pro quo for that agreement was the Clinton Administration's announcement of the 3 Noes on Taiwan. The obsession of the US with military contacts with China has led the nation into all sorts of foolishness.

Meanwhile on the South China Sea, a bunch of stuff this week. The Diplomat points out that the AirSea Battle concept touted by US military policymakers is probably a bad idea, expensive and may trigger nuclear exchanges. Foreign Policy has a photo tour of the South China Sea, while Robert Kaplan argues that the South China Sea is the future of war.

Once again, it behooves me to point out that you can't follow a policy of downgrading Taiwan while simultaneously upgrading your position in the South China Sea. Those policies contradict each other.
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Anonymous said...

Perhaps the neighboring countries of the US (ie Canada, Mexico, Cuba etc) could allow the Chinese to set up permanent bases there. Wouldn't be any different to the US having bases surrounding China, would it?

Any looming war between the US and China (which I don't believe for a minute is likely BTW) will be mostly the fault of the US if they continue their current policies. China is no threat to them (militarily speaking). There's no chance at all that China could ever mount an invasion of the US, so really there's not much to worry about from that end. Reverse the situation however, and well, the US has a very long history of invading and meddling in other countries.

Michael Turton said...

Any looming war between the US and China (which I don't believe for a minute is likely BTW) will be mostly the fault of the US if they continue their current policies.

Yes, I can see that. If the US continues its current policies of pointing missiles at Taiwan, shooting independence supporters in Tibet, threatening to invade India, claiming part or all of the territories of Mongolia, Japan, India, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Russia, building a navy and starting a carrier program it doesn't need, yes it is easy to see how the US will be at fault when war with China comes.

Tell me, do they give you guys on the pro-authoritarian side IQ lowering pills before you post here?

Michael Turton said...

Sorry, I give the pro-China trolls one shot.