Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Latest Poll Stuff

WARNING: In case you're having deja vu, I've moved this post to the top. It was published two days ago.

First, Global Views is out with the latest poll on President Ma's satisfaction/dissatisfaction.
GVSRC poll indicated President Ma’s approval rating was 35 percent and disapproval rating 52 percent. Compared with last month, Ma's approval rating slipped 3 percentage points and his disapproval rating edged up by 0.7 percentage points. 42.4 percent of the polled had trust in President Ma but 43.2 percent said otherwise. Compared with the previous month, the level of public trust in Ma dropped 3 percentage points while the level of public distrust in Ma advanced 3.1 percentage points. Generally speaking, President Ma receives more negative evaluation and less positive evaluation on his approval rating and public trust rating this month. Public evaluation on President Ma returns to the level he received during the five mayoral elections in November last year.
They have a nice tracking chart in their PDF file. KMT lawmaker performance is once again rated as abysmal but this will not stop the public from voting for them.

It's hard to say why Ma's satisfaction continues to slip, and GVSRC did not give any reasons, unlike last time. It almost appears from looking at the broad trend in the tracking poll that Ma has a "natural" approval rating of 30% to which he eventually returns, with temporary bumps. At this point I see no reason why he can't win the 2012 election, though. He'll have support from large firms, Wall Street, Washington, and Beijing.

The TVBS poll has contrary results, having Ma trending UP in satisfaction by 3% from its previous score.

TVBS also asked about nuclear power 29% trust that it is safe in Taiwan, 55% don't. When asked if the government will be able to handle it if there is an accident at a nuke plant in Taiwan, 21% say yes, 65%, nope.

Finally, Echo Taiwan has some poll data on the 2012 election. The second chart shows Ma in purple beating the DPP's Tsai in Green. The first chart and some of the discussion below says DPP Chair Tsai is the preferred DPP candidate over Su Tseng-chang by large margins. ADDED: A UDN poll from March 10 has Ma up by several points over either Tsai and Su, but a TVBS poll from the same day (blogged on below) has Ma even with either. Good luck figuring out what that means....
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.


Carlos said...

Why is distrust for Tsai Ing-Wen high enough to make Ma a favorite?

Dixteel said...

I agree there is no reason why DPP will win, but IMO currently there is no strong reason why Ma will win neither. Unfortunately I think neither Tsai or Su are the type of leaders that can inspire great support by themselves. So I think it's up to the pan-green member to make it happen.

Okami said...

About the KMT legislator poll findings, a similar thing happens in the US where people absolutely distrust every congressman except their own, though 2010 seems to be an anomaly in US politics.